1st: New England Patriots
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
See 2007 New England Patriots (minus one, fairly important game). With Tom Brady back at the helm, the sky is the limit for New England. The Patriots should expect nothing less than complete inclusion in Super Bowl contention in late January. This is a Super Bowl caliber team and has to be on the short list of Super Bowl favorites heading into the 2009 NFL Season. Another 16-0? That may be a little too much to expect, but I wouldn't be entire shocked if it happened.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
See 2008 New England Patriots (minus a surprisingly efficient fill-in job done by a backup quarterback). Assuming everybody stays healthy this season, I can't see the Patriots winning fewere than 11 or 12 games. Even if Tom Brady finds re-familiarizing himself with playing football more difficult than expected, New England has superior talent, coaching and intangibles. I would be very surprised if the Patriots didn't reclaim the top spot in the AFC East this season.
Prediction
I'll get right to the point. The Patriots are my early 2009 Super Bowl favorite. With Tom Brady fully recovered from his ACL injury of a year ago, New England just has too much going for them to not like. The key for the Patriots will be the performance of their defense which is very young in the secondary, very old on the line and a mixture of both extremes at linebacker. If the defense plays well, anything less than a Super Bowl victory in New England will be a serious disappointment.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1. 3-4 Hybrid Inside/Strongside Linebacker – Tedy Bruschi has retired and Adalius Thomas is getting older and near the end of his career. Add to consideration the fact that Bill Belichek loves versatility in his linebacking corp and secondary, making for diversity and flexibility in New England's defensive formations. Look for the Patriots to draft a top-flight linebacker who possesses the ability to succeed on either side of upcoming star right inside linebacker Jerod Mayo. Linebacker is a key position in a base 3-4 defense and the position's importance is no different in Mr. Belichek's version.
2. 3-4 Nose Tackle – Vince Wilfork is also getting older and heading into the final season of his contract. It's time for the Patriots to begin grooming his replacement. Making the position even more important to address is the fact that Richard Seymour, New England's right defensive end is also long in the tooth and heading into a contract year. The Patriots would do well to give the defensive line a little attention as soon as possible and, in the 3-4, success all begins with a space and block eating man in the middle.
3. 3-4 Right Defensive End – For the reasons stated above, Richard Seymour's replacement needs to be found soon. Unless Jarvis Green is the ultimate answer at right defensive end, New England needs to find one whether Seymour and the Patriots can agree on a contract extension or not.
2nd: New York Jets
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
2nd place in the AFC East. Overtaking the Patriots is too much to expect this year, I think. However, overtaking the Dolphins, last year's AFC East crown winner, is an exceedingly reachable goal. The Jets have a lot of talent and leadership on defense and a few weapons to go along with their impressive rookie quarterback. In my estimation, their ceiling is 10 or 11 wins, a 2nd place finish in the AFC East and a divisional round appearance in the AFC Playoffs.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
The Jets underwent a lot of change in the offseason. They have a new quarterback and a new head coach. Both Coach Ryan and Sanchez will need to do a lot of on-the-job training and it will likely take them a little time to settle into their new roles on Broadway (I didn't intend that, but I like it). If there are more bumps and bruises than I foresee, a 3rd place finish and 6 or 7 wins seems likely. Falling behind Buffalo in the division, however, just doesn't seem within the realm of possibility in '09.
Prediction
I have a good feeling about the Jets this season. I think their season will more resemble their ceiling than their floor. Similar to Matt Ryan last season, I think Sanchez will have a solid season and falter somewhat in the playoffs. I like the Jets to earn 9 or 10 wins, 2nd place in the division behind New England and a Wild Card round road exit from the playoffs.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1. #1 Wide Receiver – Jerricho Cotchery would be a good #2 receiver, but he's not a #1. David Clowney, Chansi Stuckey and Brad Smith are good fits for specific roles and niches, but don't keep defensive coordinators dreaming of X's and O's at night. The Jets need to give young Mark Sanchez a weapon if he's to find great success early in his career.
2. 3-4 Left Defensive End – Shaun Ellis is aging and really began to decline last season. New head coach Rex Ryan did an excellent job of building the defense in the offseason but, unless Vernon Gholston could potentially play on the defensive line, New York needs to get younger and more stout at left end.
3. Running Back – I know, I know. They just drafted Shonn Greene out of Iowa and Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are still on the roster. However, Greene isn't necessarily an every-down back, Jones is unhappy with his contract and likely won't be a Jet for long and Washington, while being a playmaker and having a large role, isn't designed to take on a huge workload. The NFL is a two back league and, unless Jones decides he loves New York and wants to retire a Jet, the green and white would do well to find a running back to complement Greene and Washington.
3rd: Miami Dolphins
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Unless the New England returns to their 2007 form, Miami has every reason to believe that another AFC East title is very a much a possibility in 2009. On paper, they had a very intriguing draft that could potentially pay huge dividends immediately. Pat White, Vontae Davis and Sean Smith could all see significant playing time and find solid success in 2009. If a likely tweaked Wildcat offense can succeed despite NFL defensive coordinators having had an offseason to break it down on film and locate and exploit its weaknesses, Miami could enjoy a terrific 2009 season. Combined with an upgraded defense (barring any unforeseen challenges stemming from health and age), the Dolphins look to improve upon their Cinderella 2008 season and make a deep playoff run. Ultimately, 10 or 11 wins and a Divisional Round appearance is quite possible. Anything beyond that would surprise me almost as much as the Dolphins' 2008 campaign.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
On offense, if the NFL's defensive coordinators can find ways to stop the Wildcat (after much film study) and Chad Pennington has another post-NFL Comeback Player of the Year award disappointing season, the offense will struggle mightily in 2009. On defense, Joey Porter's and Jason Taylor's ages, Phillip Merling's development and a young secondary will be keys. If these elements go the wrong way in 2009, the Dolphins will be in for a long season. This team could feasibly be victims of a fall from grace resulting in a net total of 4 or 5 wins.
Prediction
With many questions surrounding the Dolphins and a more difficult schedule in 2009 including a New England Patriots team with Tom Brady back in the fold, repeat success is no sure thing in Miami. While I don't see them collapsing after their miracle year, I do see a step backwards this season. A healthy Tom Brady and a very solid Jets squad will see the Dolphins follow up their divisioal championship year with a disappointing 3rd place finish – ahead of only Buffalo. A mid 1st round pick in 2010 and a win/loss record of right around .500 will make last season a distant memory in South Florida.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1. Outside Pass Rushing Linebacker – Returnee Jason Taylor is at the tail end of his career and the 3-4 is very dependant on its linebacking corp. Also, Parcells loves drafting linebackers early, so look for the Dolphins to find Taylor's replacement in 2010.
2. 3-4 Nose Tackle – Jason Ferguson has played well despite entering his mid 30s, but it's only a matter of time until he begins to physically decline. He's 34 heading into the 2009 season and Miami would do well to find a young, aggressive space eater to groom under him.
3. Possession Receiver – Even with the emergence of rookie Brian Hartline and the potential carried by other rookie Patrick Turner, the Dolphins could use a prototypical number 1 receiver to play opposite the speedy Tedd Ginn Jr. With him on one side and Davone Bess in the slot, Miami has a couple of solid role players, but really have no consistent chain mover or redzone target. A tall, physical receiver would give the Dolphins' passing game another dimension they don't have right now. If Hartline or Turner surprise, Miami could look elsewhere. However, there's certainly no guarantee that Hartline, a 4th round selection, nor Turner, a 3rd round selection, possess the necessary skills or potential.
4th: Buffalo Bills
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
If Terrell Owens can have a positive effect on the Bills offense, and specifically Trent Edwards and his development, that will be huge for Buffalo. Add rookie Aaron Maybin instantly providing a pass rush for a defense that has some solid talent and the Bills could surprise a few people. If these things happen and Miami stumbles a little after their Cinderella 2008 season, Buffalo could earn a 3rd place finish in the AFC East with between 6 and 8 wins. I just don't see them doing any better than that, however.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
If T.O.'s a cancer, Maybin's a bust and the Bills' young, patchwork offensive line fails miserably, the floor's the limit for Buffalo. In this scenario, 4 or 5 wins is too much to ask for. A top 3 or 5 pick in next April's draft and 2 or 3 wins would be more likely.
Prediction
Unfortunately for the Bills, their floor is closer than their ceiling. I don't like their prospects for the 2009 season. Owens is an awkward fit for a franchise still questioning if their quarterback will be their franchise signal caller. Additionally, Lynch's three game suspension will likely help put them in a hole early in the season and Aaron Maybin seems like a bit of a project and I don't expect him to have a big impact early. Come April, I think Buffalo will have a draft pick somewhere between #s 5 and 10 and 3 or 4 wins total in the 2009 campaign.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1. Strongside Linebacker – Buffalo's is the only 4-3 defense remaining in the AFC East. Consequently, offensive lines have bulked up and the Bills' defensive line is a little undersized when matching up against them. Making matters worse is the hole on the strong side of the linebacking corp in an otherwise above average group. Currently, Keith Ellison is manning the position, but the sense is that he's overachieving and is still the weak link of the group. The Bills need a playmaker at the position and Ellison will probably never be that.
2. 4-3 Nose Tackle – For some of the same reasons listed under Buffalo's #1 need, strongside linebacker, Buffalo could use a larger, more physically dominant nose tackle. Kyle Williams is solid at the position, but could be upgraded with extremely positive results. Additionally, if the Bills end up converting to the 3-4, like the rest of their division, a monstrous force that can eat up blocks in the middle would make the transition dramatically easier.
3. Left Tackle – Jason Peters is a Philadelphia Eagle and, in his place, Langston Walker will be moving over from the right side with former right guard Brad Butler taking his place. There's no telling how Buffalo's newly shuffled offensive line will perform – especially with rookies Eric Wood and Andy Levitre looking to start at the guard positions. If Walker is underwhelming at his new position in 2009, the Bills would be wise to draft a franchise left tackle in the early rounds of the 2010 NFL Draft. If, and that's a big 'if', Trent Edwards is going to be the Bills franchise quarterback, he's going to need to be confident in his blind side protection.
Up Next: Episode VI: AFC North
Valhalla Revisited: How the Favre-elous Brett Changes the Vikings 2009 Outlook
Okay, okay, before I move on to the AFC East (and I'm workin' on it, I'm workin' on it), I need to revisit my beloved Purple. A very dear friend of mine (author of the extremely well-written The Daily Pitch Count, it just so happens) has suggested to me that, given the presence of the leathery skinned, silver-bristled, easy goin' legend from Hattiesburg, Mississippi in the "Land of the Wind Chill Factor" (copyright, the great John Prine), an update is warranted and perhaps even mandatory. His implication is, of course, that the development is of significant consequence and merits at least a mention. I must concede that, as is usually the case, the man has a point.
Consequently, I've modified the Vikings' outlook for the 2009 season. As for Minnesota's 2010 draft needs, however, everything pretty much remains the same. Favre is, after all, going to turn 40 during Week 4 of the season and this will very likely be his only year playing with horns on his helmet. He may play in 2010 as well, but that wouldn't change the fact that the Vikes need to find a quarterback for 2011 and beyond. Plus, assuming Favre plays the entire season, we won't know much more about Sage Rosenfels' and Tarvaris Jackson's (who's heading into a contract year) qualifications for said role.
Anyway, here's the EDIT:
1st: Minnesota Vikings
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Everything changed when #4 came strolling into town on that fateful day. However, at this juncture, there's no telling which Brett Favre the Vikings will get this season - the early 2008 version that was inviting MVP conversations or the late 2008 version that was inviting re-retirement-related conversations. If Minnesota is fortunate enough to get the former Brett Favre, anything less than an NFC Championship appearance will be a serious disappointment and anything less than a Super Bowl victory will be at least a mild disappointment.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
If the Vikings' quarterback questions aren't ultimately answered by Mr. Favre, Minnesota is likely to just miss the playoffs or be a Wild Card round playoff casualty yet again. On the other side of the ball, if Tyrell Johnson doesn't adequately replace Darren Sharper, Antoine Winfield begins to show his age and Percy Harvin is a bust, an NFC North Divisional crown is unlikely in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.
Prediction
With Favre aboard, this is an extremely difficult call to make. I see him performing at least well enough for another NFC North championship, a Wild Card weekend victory and a Divisional Round victory in 2009. Anything more will be, to me, a bit of a surprise. As far as wins, this team is easily capable of 11 or 12. Even if Sage or Tarvaris ends up having to take the reins, I think they'll win 10 or 11.
The AFC East Preview is Coming Soon. I promise.
Consequently, I've modified the Vikings' outlook for the 2009 season. As for Minnesota's 2010 draft needs, however, everything pretty much remains the same. Favre is, after all, going to turn 40 during Week 4 of the season and this will very likely be his only year playing with horns on his helmet. He may play in 2010 as well, but that wouldn't change the fact that the Vikes need to find a quarterback for 2011 and beyond. Plus, assuming Favre plays the entire season, we won't know much more about Sage Rosenfels' and Tarvaris Jackson's (who's heading into a contract year) qualifications for said role.
Anyway, here's the EDIT:
1st: Minnesota Vikings
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Everything changed when #4 came strolling into town on that fateful day. However, at this juncture, there's no telling which Brett Favre the Vikings will get this season - the early 2008 version that was inviting MVP conversations or the late 2008 version that was inviting re-retirement-related conversations. If Minnesota is fortunate enough to get the former Brett Favre, anything less than an NFC Championship appearance will be a serious disappointment and anything less than a Super Bowl victory will be at least a mild disappointment.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
If the Vikings' quarterback questions aren't ultimately answered by Mr. Favre, Minnesota is likely to just miss the playoffs or be a Wild Card round playoff casualty yet again. On the other side of the ball, if Tyrell Johnson doesn't adequately replace Darren Sharper, Antoine Winfield begins to show his age and Percy Harvin is a bust, an NFC North Divisional crown is unlikely in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.
Prediction
With Favre aboard, this is an extremely difficult call to make. I see him performing at least well enough for another NFC North championship, a Wild Card weekend victory and a Divisional Round victory in 2009. Anything more will be, to me, a bit of a surprise. As far as wins, this team is easily capable of 11 or 12. Even if Sage or Tarvaris ends up having to take the reins, I think they'll win 10 or 11.
The AFC East Preview is Coming Soon. I promise.
2009-2010 NFL Preview - Episode IV: NFC West
1st: Seattle Seahawks
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Seattle is a much better team than they demonstrated last season as injuries piled up early and often. With that said, they are also an aging team and injuries are beginning to crop up already this season. Despite their obvious shortcomings, I fully expect the Seahawks to bounce back this season. Winning the NFC West is well within reach. A deep playoff run, on the other hand, would shock me. I see this team's ceiling being 9 or 10 wins.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Even if injuries mount again, I don't see Seattle repeating 2008. The lowest win total I can see them achieving is around 5 or 6. The key is Matt Hasselbeck. If he can stay healthy, they shouldn't have to worry about having a season worse than 8-8. If can't stay healthy, only 5 or 6 wins is quite likely.
Prediction
I actually like the Seahawks to edge out the 49ers for the division crown by either a game or via a tie-breaker. Even as an aging squad, they have enough talent to be a playoff team again. However, I don't see them winning more than one playoff game. Even winning one will be difficult.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Left Tackle – Walter Jones is breaking down before our eyes and protecting the also aging Matt Hasselbeck is mandatory. Seattle needs to find a franchise left tackle soon, because there's no telling how much longer Walter Jones will be able to hold on. Until they do, Hasselbeck will be constantly under pressure and running backs Julius Jones and Edgerring James, who was just acquired, will find very little running room on the left side.
2.Quarterback – First, let me say this; Assuming he can stay (get?) healthy, I think Hasselbeck has a few good years left in him. Nevertheless, with a new head coach and a strong upcoming quarterback class, the Seahawks would do well to groom his eventual replacement. Matt Ryans and Joe Flaccos are a rarity and giving a quarterback 2 or 3 years in the NFL before starting them has a much higher success rate than immediately throwing them to the wolves.
3. Defensive Tackle – While Seattle's defensive line isn't a particularly weak one, they play in a Tampa 2 scheme that relies heavily on pressure from their front four. Last season, they struggled getting to opposing quarterbacks and, consequently, their entire defense, particularly their secondary, took a huge step back. Getting Patrick Kerney back at defensive end from injury will help, but Seattle can't continue to depend so greatly on an aging, run-stuffing end to harass opposing teams' quarterbacks.
2nd: San Francisco 49ers
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Don't look now (or look, I don't really care), but interim-head-coach-turned-official-head-coach Mike Singletary has this team buying what he's selling and seemingly moving collectively in the right direction. With Arizona trying to bounce back from a Super Bowl loss (something that has been historically difficult), Seattle following a rough season with some key injuries on the offensive line and St. Louis in full-fledged rebuilding mode, San Francisco should aim high with expectations of an NFC West divisional crown. The 49ers should be much improved on both sides of the ball in 2009. With Patrick Willis becoming a defensive leader and superstar and the offense having many young, emerging weapons I like what the Niners are doing. Call me crazy, but I don't think 10 wins and a division crown are out of the question in San Francisco.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
If Shaun Hill and/or Alex Smith fail to impress this season and a lack of defensive pass rush exposes San Francisco's secondary, this team could be in for a long season. Another potential downfall is the Michael Crabtree situation. His holdout could go well into the season, if not through the entire season. Such a distraction could be a difficult one for the team (or, more likely, their media) to ignore. All of these potential negatives could comprise a season to forget? Number of wins in such a scenario? No more than 5.
Prediction
I can't believe I'm about to say these two words, but I'm goig to. Wild Card. I think the 49ers will earn a 2nd place finish in the NFC West behind Seattle and the 5th or 6th seed in the NFC playoffs. As for Crabtree, the future is much too murky to predict. I say he's officially a 49er by late September...or not.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Cornerback – After Walt Harris tore his ACL this offseason, cornerback is by far San Francisco's biggest need. Nate Clements is a solid corner, but there is a large, electric sign blinking 'vacancy' opposite him. Even when Harris was healthy, it was clear that he is well on the decline and the 49ers need to quickly find his replacement. Dre' Bly will likely fill in for Harris in 2009, but it is highly doubtful he is a long term solution and not a short term fix. Cornerback Joe Haden is someone the Niners' scouts should be keeping an eye on in college football this fall and early winter.
2.3-4 Outside Pass Rushing Linebacker – The 49ers are stout in the middle with Patrick Willis and Takeo Spikes, but they're less than outstanding on the outside. Parys Harralson has shown some promise, but Manny Lawson needs to emerge if San Francisco is going to pencil him in as part of their future on the outside. The Niners' defensive line is serviceable, but not superior. In other words, they need some help getting to the quarterback; especially with their gaping hole at cornerback. If Lawson doesn't step up, this position will be heavily on coach Singletary's mind going into the draft. Especially since Singletary himself was a linebacker, likely increasing his investment in building a great one in San Francisco.
3.Quarterback – If Shaun Hill or Alex Smith doesn't step up dramatically this season, the quarterback position has got to go to the top of the list of needs in the city by the bay. With 2010 looking to be a great draft for franchise quarterbacks, a great one would probably be there for the taking. However, Singletary seems to like Shaun Hill for now. He's not flashy, but he has a toughness and a consistency Singletary likes. Also, keep an eye on rookie Nate Davis out of Ball State. He was slated as a potential late 1st rounder or early 2nd rounder a few months before the draft – when the 49ers took him in the 5th round.
3rd: Arizona Cardinals
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
With an improved defense and a virtually unchanged offense (other than drafting running back Chris Wells and immediately releasing Edgerrin James), Arizona should have no doubt that another Super Bowl appearance with a different result is within reach. They're talented enough to do it barring injury and possess the intangibles necessary unless last February's loss proves to be too psychologically detrimental to overcome. Arizona is not at all unrealistic to think Lombardi Trophy.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Some think that during their 2008 playoff run, the Cardinals “caught lightning in a bottle”, as Paul Allen of Minneapolis/St. Paul's KFAN says. They were certainly a different team in January than they had been for most of the 2008 NFL season. Their offensive line and defense dramatically overachieved late in 2008 and, if Arizona reverts back to 2008 regular season form, they could very well miss the playoffs altogether in 2009.
Prediction
I don't expect the Cardinals to follow up their Cinderella season with another one. I see them 2nd behind Seattle or 3rd behind both Seattle and San Francisco in the NFC West when the regular season ends. Their defense will return to Earth and Kurt Warner will begin to look like what he is – a 38 year old man playing quarterback in the NFL. As far as a win total, they'll hover right around 8 wins.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.3-4 Defensive End – Arizona's defense plays their fair share of both the 3-4 and 4-3 schemes. When they play in the 3-4 (a look they employ more than 50% of the time), their defensive line tends to be a little undersized – typically when defending the running game. Playing better against the run and forcing teams to throw into their very good and improving secondary will only bolster their chances of returning to the Super Bowl in 2009 as NFC Champion.
2.3-4 Outside Linebacker – Again, the Cardinals play in a 3-4 scheme more than half the time and, even in the 4-3, they're a little light on solid linebackers. Their linebacking corps doesn't put enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks – a weakness a speedy pass rushing linebacker would greatly improve. Even after drafting Cody Brown in the 2nd round of last year's draft, don't be surprised if Ken Whisenhunt commits much of his energy during next offseason to loading up on athletic linebackers. Afterall, Chike Okeafor is getting old and Whisenhunt, having coached both for and against the Steelers, knows as well as anyone what a superior 3-4 linebacking group can do for a defense.
3.Tight End – Even with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin in tow, the Cardinals potent offense could use a big safety valve for Kurt Warner (and possibly eventually Matt Leinart) at the tight end position. Leonard Pope and Ben Patrick have been slowed by injuries and unspectacular even when healthy. Another weapon to make opposing defenses concern themselves with would also take a little pressure off of Fitzgerald, Boldin and Steve Breaston, already probably the best receiving trio in the NFL.
4th: St. Louis Rams
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
I may be in the minority, but I think the Rams are closer to being a good football team than many think. New head coach Steve Spagnuolo will bring a toughness to this team they haven't had in a while and with solid drafting as of late, they have have some good, young talent both on offense and defense. I wouldn't be shocked if St. Louis approached 8 or 9 wins and found themselves fighting for a Wild Card spot in late December. However, an NFC West divisional crown seems at least a couple seasons away.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
The Rams are probably still the worst team in the division and I see 3 or 4 wins and a top 5 draft pick well within the realm of possibility. While I see an improved team in 2009, I don't necessarily see that improvement manifesting itself in the wi/loss column. If the offensive line's woes continue, Marc Bulger and his young receiving corp will struggle and place, yet again, way too much pressure on the Predator-look-alike Steven Jackson. On the defense, St. Louis' youth will be key. If Chris Long, Justin King and James Laurinaitis find 2009 to be a season riddled with rookie bumps and bruises along the way, the Rams will be no threat in even the relatively weak NFC West.
Prediction
The Rams will be much improved in 2009. Unfortunately, I can see them netting no more than 5 wins and a top 7 to 10 draft pick. I really like Steve Spagnuolo and the direction in which this team is going. I just think it will take a while for them to get there.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Right Tackle – Left tackle Alex Barron is going into a contract year and has been a bit of a disappointment on St. Louis' offensive line thus far. In addition, his attitude is questionable and not likely to mix well with new head coach Steve Spagnuolo's personality and philosophy. If Barron makes big strides both on the football field and in the locker room, he may find himself moved to right tackle in 2010 with rookie draftee Jason Smith likely being ready to anchor the line on the left side. If he shows little to no improvement, he'll probably find himself in a different NFL city and the Rams will need someone to, along with Smith, bookend the Rams' line. At this stage, one would have to view the latter scenario as the more likely one.
2.Quarterback – While Marc Bulger has not been very productive in St. Louis, much of it has not been his fault. However, unless there's already a proven signal caller on the roster, new head coaches usually like to personally handpick their potential franchise quarterbacks and Spagnuolo is probably no different. The 2010 NFL Draft looks to be loaded with mouth watering talent at the position. Potential prospects include the likes of Oklahoma's Sam Bradford, Ole Miss' Jevan Snead, Texas' Colt McCoy, Florida's Tim Tebow, Central Michigan's Dan LeFevour and Western Michigan's Tim Hiller. Barring a breakout year from Bulger, any of these prospects could be very difficult to pass on come late April.
3. Cornerback – Ron Bartell has one cornerback position sewed up, but the other remains up for grabs. Competition for the position includes pseudo-bust Tye Hill and youngster Justin King. Neither of these options looks to be a standout corner in a subpar secondary. If a promising cornerback is available at a good value spot when the Rams select in the first or second round in 2010, don't be surprised if St. Louis doesn't hesitate to call his name shortly after being placed on the clock.
Up Next: Episode V - AFC East
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Seattle is a much better team than they demonstrated last season as injuries piled up early and often. With that said, they are also an aging team and injuries are beginning to crop up already this season. Despite their obvious shortcomings, I fully expect the Seahawks to bounce back this season. Winning the NFC West is well within reach. A deep playoff run, on the other hand, would shock me. I see this team's ceiling being 9 or 10 wins.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Even if injuries mount again, I don't see Seattle repeating 2008. The lowest win total I can see them achieving is around 5 or 6. The key is Matt Hasselbeck. If he can stay healthy, they shouldn't have to worry about having a season worse than 8-8. If can't stay healthy, only 5 or 6 wins is quite likely.
Prediction
I actually like the Seahawks to edge out the 49ers for the division crown by either a game or via a tie-breaker. Even as an aging squad, they have enough talent to be a playoff team again. However, I don't see them winning more than one playoff game. Even winning one will be difficult.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Left Tackle – Walter Jones is breaking down before our eyes and protecting the also aging Matt Hasselbeck is mandatory. Seattle needs to find a franchise left tackle soon, because there's no telling how much longer Walter Jones will be able to hold on. Until they do, Hasselbeck will be constantly under pressure and running backs Julius Jones and Edgerring James, who was just acquired, will find very little running room on the left side.
2.Quarterback – First, let me say this; Assuming he can stay (get?) healthy, I think Hasselbeck has a few good years left in him. Nevertheless, with a new head coach and a strong upcoming quarterback class, the Seahawks would do well to groom his eventual replacement. Matt Ryans and Joe Flaccos are a rarity and giving a quarterback 2 or 3 years in the NFL before starting them has a much higher success rate than immediately throwing them to the wolves.
3. Defensive Tackle – While Seattle's defensive line isn't a particularly weak one, they play in a Tampa 2 scheme that relies heavily on pressure from their front four. Last season, they struggled getting to opposing quarterbacks and, consequently, their entire defense, particularly their secondary, took a huge step back. Getting Patrick Kerney back at defensive end from injury will help, but Seattle can't continue to depend so greatly on an aging, run-stuffing end to harass opposing teams' quarterbacks.
2nd: San Francisco 49ers
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Don't look now (or look, I don't really care), but interim-head-coach-turned-official-head-coach Mike Singletary has this team buying what he's selling and seemingly moving collectively in the right direction. With Arizona trying to bounce back from a Super Bowl loss (something that has been historically difficult), Seattle following a rough season with some key injuries on the offensive line and St. Louis in full-fledged rebuilding mode, San Francisco should aim high with expectations of an NFC West divisional crown. The 49ers should be much improved on both sides of the ball in 2009. With Patrick Willis becoming a defensive leader and superstar and the offense having many young, emerging weapons I like what the Niners are doing. Call me crazy, but I don't think 10 wins and a division crown are out of the question in San Francisco.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
If Shaun Hill and/or Alex Smith fail to impress this season and a lack of defensive pass rush exposes San Francisco's secondary, this team could be in for a long season. Another potential downfall is the Michael Crabtree situation. His holdout could go well into the season, if not through the entire season. Such a distraction could be a difficult one for the team (or, more likely, their media) to ignore. All of these potential negatives could comprise a season to forget? Number of wins in such a scenario? No more than 5.
Prediction
I can't believe I'm about to say these two words, but I'm goig to. Wild Card. I think the 49ers will earn a 2nd place finish in the NFC West behind Seattle and the 5th or 6th seed in the NFC playoffs. As for Crabtree, the future is much too murky to predict. I say he's officially a 49er by late September...or not.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Cornerback – After Walt Harris tore his ACL this offseason, cornerback is by far San Francisco's biggest need. Nate Clements is a solid corner, but there is a large, electric sign blinking 'vacancy' opposite him. Even when Harris was healthy, it was clear that he is well on the decline and the 49ers need to quickly find his replacement. Dre' Bly will likely fill in for Harris in 2009, but it is highly doubtful he is a long term solution and not a short term fix. Cornerback Joe Haden is someone the Niners' scouts should be keeping an eye on in college football this fall and early winter.
2.3-4 Outside Pass Rushing Linebacker – The 49ers are stout in the middle with Patrick Willis and Takeo Spikes, but they're less than outstanding on the outside. Parys Harralson has shown some promise, but Manny Lawson needs to emerge if San Francisco is going to pencil him in as part of their future on the outside. The Niners' defensive line is serviceable, but not superior. In other words, they need some help getting to the quarterback; especially with their gaping hole at cornerback. If Lawson doesn't step up, this position will be heavily on coach Singletary's mind going into the draft. Especially since Singletary himself was a linebacker, likely increasing his investment in building a great one in San Francisco.
3.Quarterback – If Shaun Hill or Alex Smith doesn't step up dramatically this season, the quarterback position has got to go to the top of the list of needs in the city by the bay. With 2010 looking to be a great draft for franchise quarterbacks, a great one would probably be there for the taking. However, Singletary seems to like Shaun Hill for now. He's not flashy, but he has a toughness and a consistency Singletary likes. Also, keep an eye on rookie Nate Davis out of Ball State. He was slated as a potential late 1st rounder or early 2nd rounder a few months before the draft – when the 49ers took him in the 5th round.
3rd: Arizona Cardinals
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
With an improved defense and a virtually unchanged offense (other than drafting running back Chris Wells and immediately releasing Edgerrin James), Arizona should have no doubt that another Super Bowl appearance with a different result is within reach. They're talented enough to do it barring injury and possess the intangibles necessary unless last February's loss proves to be too psychologically detrimental to overcome. Arizona is not at all unrealistic to think Lombardi Trophy.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Some think that during their 2008 playoff run, the Cardinals “caught lightning in a bottle”, as Paul Allen of Minneapolis/St. Paul's KFAN says. They were certainly a different team in January than they had been for most of the 2008 NFL season. Their offensive line and defense dramatically overachieved late in 2008 and, if Arizona reverts back to 2008 regular season form, they could very well miss the playoffs altogether in 2009.
Prediction
I don't expect the Cardinals to follow up their Cinderella season with another one. I see them 2nd behind Seattle or 3rd behind both Seattle and San Francisco in the NFC West when the regular season ends. Their defense will return to Earth and Kurt Warner will begin to look like what he is – a 38 year old man playing quarterback in the NFL. As far as a win total, they'll hover right around 8 wins.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.3-4 Defensive End – Arizona's defense plays their fair share of both the 3-4 and 4-3 schemes. When they play in the 3-4 (a look they employ more than 50% of the time), their defensive line tends to be a little undersized – typically when defending the running game. Playing better against the run and forcing teams to throw into their very good and improving secondary will only bolster their chances of returning to the Super Bowl in 2009 as NFC Champion.
2.3-4 Outside Linebacker – Again, the Cardinals play in a 3-4 scheme more than half the time and, even in the 4-3, they're a little light on solid linebackers. Their linebacking corps doesn't put enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks – a weakness a speedy pass rushing linebacker would greatly improve. Even after drafting Cody Brown in the 2nd round of last year's draft, don't be surprised if Ken Whisenhunt commits much of his energy during next offseason to loading up on athletic linebackers. Afterall, Chike Okeafor is getting old and Whisenhunt, having coached both for and against the Steelers, knows as well as anyone what a superior 3-4 linebacking group can do for a defense.
3.Tight End – Even with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin in tow, the Cardinals potent offense could use a big safety valve for Kurt Warner (and possibly eventually Matt Leinart) at the tight end position. Leonard Pope and Ben Patrick have been slowed by injuries and unspectacular even when healthy. Another weapon to make opposing defenses concern themselves with would also take a little pressure off of Fitzgerald, Boldin and Steve Breaston, already probably the best receiving trio in the NFL.
4th: St. Louis Rams
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
I may be in the minority, but I think the Rams are closer to being a good football team than many think. New head coach Steve Spagnuolo will bring a toughness to this team they haven't had in a while and with solid drafting as of late, they have have some good, young talent both on offense and defense. I wouldn't be shocked if St. Louis approached 8 or 9 wins and found themselves fighting for a Wild Card spot in late December. However, an NFC West divisional crown seems at least a couple seasons away.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
The Rams are probably still the worst team in the division and I see 3 or 4 wins and a top 5 draft pick well within the realm of possibility. While I see an improved team in 2009, I don't necessarily see that improvement manifesting itself in the wi/loss column. If the offensive line's woes continue, Marc Bulger and his young receiving corp will struggle and place, yet again, way too much pressure on the Predator-look-alike Steven Jackson. On the defense, St. Louis' youth will be key. If Chris Long, Justin King and James Laurinaitis find 2009 to be a season riddled with rookie bumps and bruises along the way, the Rams will be no threat in even the relatively weak NFC West.
Prediction
The Rams will be much improved in 2009. Unfortunately, I can see them netting no more than 5 wins and a top 7 to 10 draft pick. I really like Steve Spagnuolo and the direction in which this team is going. I just think it will take a while for them to get there.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Right Tackle – Left tackle Alex Barron is going into a contract year and has been a bit of a disappointment on St. Louis' offensive line thus far. In addition, his attitude is questionable and not likely to mix well with new head coach Steve Spagnuolo's personality and philosophy. If Barron makes big strides both on the football field and in the locker room, he may find himself moved to right tackle in 2010 with rookie draftee Jason Smith likely being ready to anchor the line on the left side. If he shows little to no improvement, he'll probably find himself in a different NFL city and the Rams will need someone to, along with Smith, bookend the Rams' line. At this stage, one would have to view the latter scenario as the more likely one.
2.Quarterback – While Marc Bulger has not been very productive in St. Louis, much of it has not been his fault. However, unless there's already a proven signal caller on the roster, new head coaches usually like to personally handpick their potential franchise quarterbacks and Spagnuolo is probably no different. The 2010 NFL Draft looks to be loaded with mouth watering talent at the position. Potential prospects include the likes of Oklahoma's Sam Bradford, Ole Miss' Jevan Snead, Texas' Colt McCoy, Florida's Tim Tebow, Central Michigan's Dan LeFevour and Western Michigan's Tim Hiller. Barring a breakout year from Bulger, any of these prospects could be very difficult to pass on come late April.
3. Cornerback – Ron Bartell has one cornerback position sewed up, but the other remains up for grabs. Competition for the position includes pseudo-bust Tye Hill and youngster Justin King. Neither of these options looks to be a standout corner in a subpar secondary. If a promising cornerback is available at a good value spot when the Rams select in the first or second round in 2010, don't be surprised if St. Louis doesn't hesitate to call his name shortly after being placed on the clock.
Up Next: Episode V - AFC East
2009-2010 NFL Preview - Episode III: NFC South
1st: Atlanta Falcons
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
The surprise team of 2008 looks to be a solid team in 2009 as well. If Matt Ryan can avoid a sophomore slump, a virtually nameless offensive line can continue to surprise and their abundance of youth in the defense and step in immediately and contribute, Atlanta should win the NFC South. While I don't foresee a deep playoff run, the Divisional round is, by no means, out of reach.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
The key here is Matt Ryan. If he struggles in his second year with defenses (and their coordinators) having tape on him, Atlanta could easily plummet all the way back down to Earth. Their floor is 3rd place, behind Carolina and New Orleans and ahead of Tampa Bay.
Prediction
The Falcons should win the NFC South even with a solid Panther squad and an explosive Saints team in the division. I see 10 or 11 wins out of Atlanta and possibly even a playoff win.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Strongside Linebacker – In 2009, the Falcons will depend on Stephen Nicholas to step up and assume the hole at strongside linebacker. Nicholas has played only on special teams for Atlanta and is no sure thing at linebacker. Additionally, Atlanta's secondary made far too many tackles last year for linebacker to not be considered a need area – unless Nicholas has a breakout year, that is.
2.Strong Safety – Former Cal standout safety Thomas DeCoud will likely play alongside free safety Erik Coleman this season. DeCoud's experience is strictly on special teams and he is no safe (no pun intended) bet to be an impact player in the Falcons' secondary. If he struggles, Atlanta would likely be on the lookout for an impact strong safety next April, especially with the position being directly behind another need position in strongside linebacker.
3.Possession Receiver – Roddy White is a consistent deep threat and Michael Jenkins is a good slot receiver. However, the Falcons could use a tall, physical possession receiver. Even with the acquisition of Tony Gonzalez at tight end, Matt Ryan would undoubtedly benefit from another safety valve to move the chains on third downs.
2nd: Carolina Panthers
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
The Panthers have enough talent to make a deep playoff run. If they can do what the Steelers did in 2008 and survive an extremely difficult schedule, they're built to win in the playoffs (contrary to what we saw from them against the Cardinals last postseason) with a dominant rushing game and a stifling defense. Barring a significant decline from any one of their many aging veterans, the Panthers will be good. How good remains to be seen. I could see the Panthers being a Super Bowl contender – assuming they're season goes relatively smoothly and they remain a playoff team.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
As is stated above, the Panthers have a rough schedule. The one game they play against a team that was not .500 or above last season is a Buffalo Bills squad that was 7-9. A hangover from last season's potentially demoralizing loss to Arizona in the playoffs could conceivably leave this team near the bottom of the NFC South in 2009.
Prediction
The Panthers will likely be a 2nd place Wild Card team this season. Finishing behind the Falcons, I think they'll have an 8 or 9 win season and a Divisional round exit from the playoffs in 2009. With a disappointing season, John Fox will likely find himself on the hot seat as the Panthers have no 1st round selection next April (traded to San Francisco), Julius Peppers is probably on his way out and signing Jake Delhomme, who's 34 years old, to a long-term contract extension could look like a disastrous decision.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Cornerback – Richard Marshall is stepping in for the departed (not dead, I should clarify) Ken Lucas. Marshall has not proven anything yet and Carolina could use a coverman opposite Chris Gamble.
2.Strongside Linebacker – Na'il Diggs is solid, but could be upgraded on an otherwise above average defensive front seven. He's also going into his 10th season so the Panthers would do well to find an eventual replacement regardless of his performance in 2009.
3.Possession Receiver – Thus far, Dwayne Jarrett has been disappointing and Muhsin Muhammad is 36 years old. Carolina needs someone who will be able to take some pressure off of Steve Smith, the Panthers' best offensive weapon. John Fox is ultra conservative and would probably rather the forward pass be illegal in the NFL, but unless he wants to be shown the door after 2009, he needs to locate a passing game outside the occasional Steve Smith post pattern.
3rd: New Orleans Saints
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Probably a division title. The Saints offense has the potential to be as good as any in the league, but unfortunately for New Orleans, playing defense is also important. However, if new offensive coordinator Gregg Williams can bring dramatic improvement to the Saints defense, this team could be one of the best in the NFC. I think their ceiling is the Divisional round. Winning on the road outside in cold weather in December and January will not be easy for this team and they're bound to play games like that unless they win Homefield Advantage throughout the playoffs...which is very unlikely.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
A 3rd place finish in the NFC South – thanks to Tampa Bay. If their offense stalls at all in the regular season and their defense doesn't significantly exceed expectations, the Saints will have a very difficult go of it in an ultra competitive NFC South. In this scenario, missing the playoffs and having a top 10 or 15 pick in next April's draft is almost a given.
Prediction
Unfortunately for the Saints, I think they're 2009 season will be more like their floor than their ceiling. I just don't see them surpassing either Atlanta or Carolina. Even less likely, however, is their being surpassed by Tampa Bay. Things are looking a lot like between 6 and 8 wins and a 3rd place finish in the NFC South.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Free Safety – Darren Sharper is not the answer to New Orleans' secondary's woes of a year ago. He's lost more than a step and, if the Saints are going to improve their defense enough to make them a Super Bowl team, they'll need a long term answer at the position.
2.Every Down Running Back – All we need to know is that New Orleans attempted to trade up to draft Chris “Beanie” Wells last April. Reggie Bush is a good return specialist and receiver in the flat, but he is no every down back who will give you yardage between the tackles when needed. Pierre Thomas looks promising, but doesn't have the homerun hitting capability the Saints were looking for when they tried to trade up for Wells.
3.Pass Rushing Defensive End – Charles Grant had a disappointing 2008 and the Saints paid for it. They got very little pressure on opposing quarterbacks, allowing them to expose their weak secondary. If they're to take the next step toward a Lombardi trophy, a pass rush is mandatory.
4th: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
In short, very little. Tampa Bay is in rebuilding mode and I can't imagine them winning more than 3 or 4 games. In their case, a best case scenario involves Josh Freeman showing that he can be their quarterback of the future no matter what Tampa Bay's record is in 2009.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
The 2008 Detroit Lions. The 1st or 2nd pick in next year's draft is well within reach. All they have to do is aim low and reach for the pits of Hell and they'll come very close.
Prediction
I see only 2 or 3 wins for the Buccaneers this year. Both the offense and defense have undergone big changes and this team is looking to the future. In the end, their 2009 season will be more about assessing team needs than wins and losses.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Defensive Tackle – Chris Hovan is a solid player in his own right, but does not fit new defensive coordinator Jim Bates' scheme. Bates prefers bulkier defensive tackles. Tampa Bay is in rebuilding mode and I expect them to start on defense, where their bread has been buttered for so many years. It would make sense for the Bucs to begin in the trenches.
2.Strong Safety – Scabby Piscitelli is likely not the answer at strong safety and the position is key in fixing Tampa Bay's secondary. With prospects like Eric Berry out of Tennessee and USC's Taylor Mays potentially available next spring, don't count out the Buccaneers drafting one in the first round.
3.Deep Threat Wide Receiver – Antonio Bryant had a good season with Tampa Bay last year as a possession type receiver. He did so with no real threat opposite him. The Buccaneers would do well to draft a Dez Bryant-esque player in 2010 to stretch defenses out by giving them a reason to cover the deep part of the field.
Next Up: Episode IV - NFC West
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
The surprise team of 2008 looks to be a solid team in 2009 as well. If Matt Ryan can avoid a sophomore slump, a virtually nameless offensive line can continue to surprise and their abundance of youth in the defense and step in immediately and contribute, Atlanta should win the NFC South. While I don't foresee a deep playoff run, the Divisional round is, by no means, out of reach.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
The key here is Matt Ryan. If he struggles in his second year with defenses (and their coordinators) having tape on him, Atlanta could easily plummet all the way back down to Earth. Their floor is 3rd place, behind Carolina and New Orleans and ahead of Tampa Bay.
Prediction
The Falcons should win the NFC South even with a solid Panther squad and an explosive Saints team in the division. I see 10 or 11 wins out of Atlanta and possibly even a playoff win.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Strongside Linebacker – In 2009, the Falcons will depend on Stephen Nicholas to step up and assume the hole at strongside linebacker. Nicholas has played only on special teams for Atlanta and is no sure thing at linebacker. Additionally, Atlanta's secondary made far too many tackles last year for linebacker to not be considered a need area – unless Nicholas has a breakout year, that is.
2.Strong Safety – Former Cal standout safety Thomas DeCoud will likely play alongside free safety Erik Coleman this season. DeCoud's experience is strictly on special teams and he is no safe (no pun intended) bet to be an impact player in the Falcons' secondary. If he struggles, Atlanta would likely be on the lookout for an impact strong safety next April, especially with the position being directly behind another need position in strongside linebacker.
3.Possession Receiver – Roddy White is a consistent deep threat and Michael Jenkins is a good slot receiver. However, the Falcons could use a tall, physical possession receiver. Even with the acquisition of Tony Gonzalez at tight end, Matt Ryan would undoubtedly benefit from another safety valve to move the chains on third downs.
2nd: Carolina Panthers
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
The Panthers have enough talent to make a deep playoff run. If they can do what the Steelers did in 2008 and survive an extremely difficult schedule, they're built to win in the playoffs (contrary to what we saw from them against the Cardinals last postseason) with a dominant rushing game and a stifling defense. Barring a significant decline from any one of their many aging veterans, the Panthers will be good. How good remains to be seen. I could see the Panthers being a Super Bowl contender – assuming they're season goes relatively smoothly and they remain a playoff team.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
As is stated above, the Panthers have a rough schedule. The one game they play against a team that was not .500 or above last season is a Buffalo Bills squad that was 7-9. A hangover from last season's potentially demoralizing loss to Arizona in the playoffs could conceivably leave this team near the bottom of the NFC South in 2009.
Prediction
The Panthers will likely be a 2nd place Wild Card team this season. Finishing behind the Falcons, I think they'll have an 8 or 9 win season and a Divisional round exit from the playoffs in 2009. With a disappointing season, John Fox will likely find himself on the hot seat as the Panthers have no 1st round selection next April (traded to San Francisco), Julius Peppers is probably on his way out and signing Jake Delhomme, who's 34 years old, to a long-term contract extension could look like a disastrous decision.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Cornerback – Richard Marshall is stepping in for the departed (not dead, I should clarify) Ken Lucas. Marshall has not proven anything yet and Carolina could use a coverman opposite Chris Gamble.
2.Strongside Linebacker – Na'il Diggs is solid, but could be upgraded on an otherwise above average defensive front seven. He's also going into his 10th season so the Panthers would do well to find an eventual replacement regardless of his performance in 2009.
3.Possession Receiver – Thus far, Dwayne Jarrett has been disappointing and Muhsin Muhammad is 36 years old. Carolina needs someone who will be able to take some pressure off of Steve Smith, the Panthers' best offensive weapon. John Fox is ultra conservative and would probably rather the forward pass be illegal in the NFL, but unless he wants to be shown the door after 2009, he needs to locate a passing game outside the occasional Steve Smith post pattern.
3rd: New Orleans Saints
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Probably a division title. The Saints offense has the potential to be as good as any in the league, but unfortunately for New Orleans, playing defense is also important. However, if new offensive coordinator Gregg Williams can bring dramatic improvement to the Saints defense, this team could be one of the best in the NFC. I think their ceiling is the Divisional round. Winning on the road outside in cold weather in December and January will not be easy for this team and they're bound to play games like that unless they win Homefield Advantage throughout the playoffs...which is very unlikely.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
A 3rd place finish in the NFC South – thanks to Tampa Bay. If their offense stalls at all in the regular season and their defense doesn't significantly exceed expectations, the Saints will have a very difficult go of it in an ultra competitive NFC South. In this scenario, missing the playoffs and having a top 10 or 15 pick in next April's draft is almost a given.
Prediction
Unfortunately for the Saints, I think they're 2009 season will be more like their floor than their ceiling. I just don't see them surpassing either Atlanta or Carolina. Even less likely, however, is their being surpassed by Tampa Bay. Things are looking a lot like between 6 and 8 wins and a 3rd place finish in the NFC South.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Free Safety – Darren Sharper is not the answer to New Orleans' secondary's woes of a year ago. He's lost more than a step and, if the Saints are going to improve their defense enough to make them a Super Bowl team, they'll need a long term answer at the position.
2.Every Down Running Back – All we need to know is that New Orleans attempted to trade up to draft Chris “Beanie” Wells last April. Reggie Bush is a good return specialist and receiver in the flat, but he is no every down back who will give you yardage between the tackles when needed. Pierre Thomas looks promising, but doesn't have the homerun hitting capability the Saints were looking for when they tried to trade up for Wells.
3.Pass Rushing Defensive End – Charles Grant had a disappointing 2008 and the Saints paid for it. They got very little pressure on opposing quarterbacks, allowing them to expose their weak secondary. If they're to take the next step toward a Lombardi trophy, a pass rush is mandatory.
4th: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
In short, very little. Tampa Bay is in rebuilding mode and I can't imagine them winning more than 3 or 4 games. In their case, a best case scenario involves Josh Freeman showing that he can be their quarterback of the future no matter what Tampa Bay's record is in 2009.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
The 2008 Detroit Lions. The 1st or 2nd pick in next year's draft is well within reach. All they have to do is aim low and reach for the pits of Hell and they'll come very close.
Prediction
I see only 2 or 3 wins for the Buccaneers this year. Both the offense and defense have undergone big changes and this team is looking to the future. In the end, their 2009 season will be more about assessing team needs than wins and losses.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Defensive Tackle – Chris Hovan is a solid player in his own right, but does not fit new defensive coordinator Jim Bates' scheme. Bates prefers bulkier defensive tackles. Tampa Bay is in rebuilding mode and I expect them to start on defense, where their bread has been buttered for so many years. It would make sense for the Bucs to begin in the trenches.
2.Strong Safety – Scabby Piscitelli is likely not the answer at strong safety and the position is key in fixing Tampa Bay's secondary. With prospects like Eric Berry out of Tennessee and USC's Taylor Mays potentially available next spring, don't count out the Buccaneers drafting one in the first round.
3.Deep Threat Wide Receiver – Antonio Bryant had a good season with Tampa Bay last year as a possession type receiver. He did so with no real threat opposite him. The Buccaneers would do well to draft a Dez Bryant-esque player in 2010 to stretch defenses out by giving them a reason to cover the deep part of the field.
Next Up: Episode IV - NFC West
2009-2010 NFL Preview - Episode II: NFC North
1st: Minnesota Vikings
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
It's been said before and I'll say it again. The Vikings are a championship caliber football team without a quarterback. If Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson shows himself to be a potential NFL franchise quarterback, this team will be elite. If this becomes the case, anything less than an NFC Championship appearance will be a serious disappointment.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
If the Vikings still don't have a viable quarterback by late in the 2009 season, Minnesota is likely to just miss the playoffs or be a Wild Card round playoff casualty yet again. If they don't find a quarterback, Tyrell Johnson doesn't adequately replace Darren Sharper, Antoine Winfield begins to show his age and Percy Harvin is a bust, an NFC North Divisional crown is unlikely in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.
Prediction
Look for Minnesota to get inconsistent, but serviceable play from the quarterback position whether it's from Rosenfels or Jackson. I see another NFC North championship, a Wild Card weekend victory and a Divisional Round loss in 2009. As far as wins, somewhere between 10 and 12 seems about right.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.West Coast Quarterback – If Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson don't emerge as franchise quarterbacks this season, look for Minnesota to look for one in the draft; especially if Coach Brad Childress isn't invited back for the 2010 season. And, no, John David Booty probably won't be an option. Luckily for the Vikings, next year's crop of incoming quarterbacks should be bountiful. Between Sam Bradford, Jevan Snead, Colt McCoy, Dan LeFevour and Tim Hiller, Minnesota would seem bound to come out of the 2010 NFL Draft with someone they could develop for the future.
2.Nose Tackle – Pat Williams is getting old and the Vikings need to start thinking about his potential replacement. Fred Evans could be a serviceable, short term band-aid, but is not and never will be the dominant nose tackle Phat Pat is.
3.Weakside Linebacker – Ben Leber is a good, cerebral-if-not-overly-athletic weakside linebacker, but he's getting a little older. Drafting an explosive pass rushing right defensive end to play behind Jared Allen would give the Vikings a downright scary presence on the right side.
2nd: Chicago Bears
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
The Bears are a difficult team to project for the 2009-2010 season. A lot could go well, but a lot could also go poorly. If Jay Cutler can make use of young weapons Earl Bennett and Joaquin Iglesias and help Devin Hester have a bounce-back season, the offense could be explosive – especially with the very well rounded Matt Forte in the fold. Also Orlando Pace comes to an offensive line with some talent. If the group can gel in its first year together, good things will happen in Chicago. I see their ceiling being a Divisional Playoff game or perhaps even an NFC Championship Game appearance.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
As has been stated before, a lot could go wrong for the Bears. The defense is aging and in obvious decline and the offense is riddled with question marks. When disappointing return specialist-turned-receiver Devin Hester is your top receiving threat, your offensive line is comprised of utter strangers and Jay Cutler brings to town with him potential locker room and chemistry issues, there isn't a lot of certainty on which to hang a hat. If these question marks become negatives, Chicago will likely be a 3rd place team in a fairly weak division and miss the playoffs by a long shot.
Prediction
I think the Chicago Bears will have an up and down 2009. They'll hover somewhere around 8-8, be a 2nd or 3rd place team in the NFC North and miss the playoffs.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Pass Rushing Defensive End – The Bears need to create more of a pass rush to take some pressure off their aging linebacking corps and secondary. Adewale Ogunleye is one of Chicago's aging defenders and is in rapid decline. In reality, Alex Brown, who plays on the right side, is effective against the run and may be a better fit on the left side. Then, the Bears could put a young, explosive pass rusher on the right side.
2.Free Safety – Chicago's glut of safeties is high in quantity and low in quality. Strong Safety Kevin Payne needs a more dynamic safety to assist him in safety-related duties.
3.Strongside Linebacker – I don't think either Nick Roach or Hunter Hillenmeyer is the long term answer here. Hillenmeyer is a smart, reliable reserve and Nick Roach is heading into a contract year. If Roach doesn't emerge as the future at the position in 2009, look for this position to be addressed next April.
3rd: Green Bay Packers
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Green Bay has a lot of bright spots with Aaron Rodgers not being the least of them. If he can follow up an impressive 2008 campaign with an even better 2009, the Packers' offense will be a difficult one to stop. If that happens and the defense, specifically Aaron Kampman, makes a smooth transition to the 3-4 defense, an NFC North crown is certainly not out of the question. In this scenario, the Packers could be as good as anyone in the NFC and I wouldn't be surprised to see them play in the NFC Championship game.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
If Chad Clifton finally breaks down entirely, giving Aaron Rodgers no time in the pocket, and the defense (again, specifically Aaron Kampman) struggles to adapt to the 3-4, the Packers are in for a long season. If this is the case for Green Bay, they'll probably finish 3rd in the NFC North, looking way up at Chicago and Minnesota.
Prediction
Look for the Packers to benefit from an even better season from Aaron Rodgers in 2009. The offense's production should be impressive with Rodgers going into his second season as a starter. However, the defense will need another offseason or two to find the right personnel for the 3-4. With 7 or 8 wins, the Packers will be a 3rd place team, but considered a fringe Wild Card team until the final few weeks of the season.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Left Tackle – While Green Bay's defense is a much bigger concern than their offense, their biggest glarig hole is at left tackle. Chad Clifton's career is at its tail end and the Packers must a find a replacement for him and fast.
2.3-4 Inside Linebacker – Nick Barnett is coming off of an ACL injury and AJ Hawk has been a bit of a bust thus far, possibly partly due to lingering injuries. Unfortunately for the Packers, the linebacking corps is the key to Green Bay's success following their switch to the 3-4 defense.
3.3-4 Defensive End – It is still undecided as to whether the Packers will use Ryan Pickett at nose tackle to back up rookie draftee B.J. Raji or move him to left end. If he backs up Raji, Johnny Jolly will likely play the position. Pickett is a better fit at nose tackle and neither Pickett nor Jolly looks to be the answer as a 3-4 defensive end. If Ted Thompson and Dom Capers don't want newly-moved-to-outside linebacker Aaron Kampman to be overworked, they'll need to find a pure 3-4 end to solidify their defensive line.
4th: Detroit Lions
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
1-15. Kidding, kidding. If Daunte Culpepper can regain his 2004 form or Matthew Stafford can seize the starting job and have a Matt Ryan/Joe Flacco-esque impact, developing a chemistry with freak athlete Calvin Johnson, watch out! This team actually has a lot of youth that could progress quickly. I may be on my way to Palm Springs for saying this, but the Lions could come close to being a Wild Card team in 2009.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
On the plus side, the Lions have nowhere to go but up. The biggest key for them is the quarterback position. If Culpepper plays like he has for the last 4 years and Stafford looks like a rookie, the Lions will still probably win more games than they did last year...but not many.
Prediction
I think Detroit is going to be a sneaky team this year and provide some exciting flashes of a promising future. Daunte Cullpepper will exceed expectations and, after an eventual injury, Matthew Stafford will step in and play well (not Matt Ryan-ish, but well). I think they'll win at least 4 or 5 games and would not be shocked if they won 6 or 7.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Defensive Under Tackle – Grady Jackson will man the nose tackle position, but Detroit needs a replacement for Chuck Darby who had 1.5 sacks in 15 games last season. Someone to help clog the middle on Detroit's defensive line would pay dividends in both pass and run defense.
2.Left Tackle – The Lions need to protect their new investment's (when Stafford plays, that is) blind side and, barring an incredible year from Jeff Backus, he seems a suspect choice to do so. Detroit would do well to draft a blue chip left tackle in the mold of Oklahoma State's Russell Okung and move Backus to left guard.
3.Running Back – The strength of this position depends greatly on the scheme the Lions settle on in 2009. New Head Coach Jim Schwartz prefers a more power-oriented, road grading scheme while new Offensive Coordinator Scott Linehan prefers a zone blocking scheme. Running back Kevin Smith is a great fit for the latter, but a poor fit for the former. If Schwartz's preferred offense is employed, drafting a new rusher will be mandatory. If Linehan's zone blocking scheme is used, another running back would still be a nice addition as the NFL moves toward the employment of more rushing tandems as opposed to lone workhorses.
Up Next - Episode III: NFC South
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
It's been said before and I'll say it again. The Vikings are a championship caliber football team without a quarterback. If Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson shows himself to be a potential NFL franchise quarterback, this team will be elite. If this becomes the case, anything less than an NFC Championship appearance will be a serious disappointment.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
If the Vikings still don't have a viable quarterback by late in the 2009 season, Minnesota is likely to just miss the playoffs or be a Wild Card round playoff casualty yet again. If they don't find a quarterback, Tyrell Johnson doesn't adequately replace Darren Sharper, Antoine Winfield begins to show his age and Percy Harvin is a bust, an NFC North Divisional crown is unlikely in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.
Prediction
Look for Minnesota to get inconsistent, but serviceable play from the quarterback position whether it's from Rosenfels or Jackson. I see another NFC North championship, a Wild Card weekend victory and a Divisional Round loss in 2009. As far as wins, somewhere between 10 and 12 seems about right.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.West Coast Quarterback – If Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson don't emerge as franchise quarterbacks this season, look for Minnesota to look for one in the draft; especially if Coach Brad Childress isn't invited back for the 2010 season. And, no, John David Booty probably won't be an option. Luckily for the Vikings, next year's crop of incoming quarterbacks should be bountiful. Between Sam Bradford, Jevan Snead, Colt McCoy, Dan LeFevour and Tim Hiller, Minnesota would seem bound to come out of the 2010 NFL Draft with someone they could develop for the future.
2.Nose Tackle – Pat Williams is getting old and the Vikings need to start thinking about his potential replacement. Fred Evans could be a serviceable, short term band-aid, but is not and never will be the dominant nose tackle Phat Pat is.
3.Weakside Linebacker – Ben Leber is a good, cerebral-if-not-overly-athletic weakside linebacker, but he's getting a little older. Drafting an explosive pass rushing right defensive end to play behind Jared Allen would give the Vikings a downright scary presence on the right side.
2nd: Chicago Bears
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
The Bears are a difficult team to project for the 2009-2010 season. A lot could go well, but a lot could also go poorly. If Jay Cutler can make use of young weapons Earl Bennett and Joaquin Iglesias and help Devin Hester have a bounce-back season, the offense could be explosive – especially with the very well rounded Matt Forte in the fold. Also Orlando Pace comes to an offensive line with some talent. If the group can gel in its first year together, good things will happen in Chicago. I see their ceiling being a Divisional Playoff game or perhaps even an NFC Championship Game appearance.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
As has been stated before, a lot could go wrong for the Bears. The defense is aging and in obvious decline and the offense is riddled with question marks. When disappointing return specialist-turned-receiver Devin Hester is your top receiving threat, your offensive line is comprised of utter strangers and Jay Cutler brings to town with him potential locker room and chemistry issues, there isn't a lot of certainty on which to hang a hat. If these question marks become negatives, Chicago will likely be a 3rd place team in a fairly weak division and miss the playoffs by a long shot.
Prediction
I think the Chicago Bears will have an up and down 2009. They'll hover somewhere around 8-8, be a 2nd or 3rd place team in the NFC North and miss the playoffs.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Pass Rushing Defensive End – The Bears need to create more of a pass rush to take some pressure off their aging linebacking corps and secondary. Adewale Ogunleye is one of Chicago's aging defenders and is in rapid decline. In reality, Alex Brown, who plays on the right side, is effective against the run and may be a better fit on the left side. Then, the Bears could put a young, explosive pass rusher on the right side.
2.Free Safety – Chicago's glut of safeties is high in quantity and low in quality. Strong Safety Kevin Payne needs a more dynamic safety to assist him in safety-related duties.
3.Strongside Linebacker – I don't think either Nick Roach or Hunter Hillenmeyer is the long term answer here. Hillenmeyer is a smart, reliable reserve and Nick Roach is heading into a contract year. If Roach doesn't emerge as the future at the position in 2009, look for this position to be addressed next April.
3rd: Green Bay Packers
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Green Bay has a lot of bright spots with Aaron Rodgers not being the least of them. If he can follow up an impressive 2008 campaign with an even better 2009, the Packers' offense will be a difficult one to stop. If that happens and the defense, specifically Aaron Kampman, makes a smooth transition to the 3-4 defense, an NFC North crown is certainly not out of the question. In this scenario, the Packers could be as good as anyone in the NFC and I wouldn't be surprised to see them play in the NFC Championship game.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
If Chad Clifton finally breaks down entirely, giving Aaron Rodgers no time in the pocket, and the defense (again, specifically Aaron Kampman) struggles to adapt to the 3-4, the Packers are in for a long season. If this is the case for Green Bay, they'll probably finish 3rd in the NFC North, looking way up at Chicago and Minnesota.
Prediction
Look for the Packers to benefit from an even better season from Aaron Rodgers in 2009. The offense's production should be impressive with Rodgers going into his second season as a starter. However, the defense will need another offseason or two to find the right personnel for the 3-4. With 7 or 8 wins, the Packers will be a 3rd place team, but considered a fringe Wild Card team until the final few weeks of the season.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Left Tackle – While Green Bay's defense is a much bigger concern than their offense, their biggest glarig hole is at left tackle. Chad Clifton's career is at its tail end and the Packers must a find a replacement for him and fast.
2.3-4 Inside Linebacker – Nick Barnett is coming off of an ACL injury and AJ Hawk has been a bit of a bust thus far, possibly partly due to lingering injuries. Unfortunately for the Packers, the linebacking corps is the key to Green Bay's success following their switch to the 3-4 defense.
3.3-4 Defensive End – It is still undecided as to whether the Packers will use Ryan Pickett at nose tackle to back up rookie draftee B.J. Raji or move him to left end. If he backs up Raji, Johnny Jolly will likely play the position. Pickett is a better fit at nose tackle and neither Pickett nor Jolly looks to be the answer as a 3-4 defensive end. If Ted Thompson and Dom Capers don't want newly-moved-to-outside linebacker Aaron Kampman to be overworked, they'll need to find a pure 3-4 end to solidify their defensive line.
4th: Detroit Lions
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
1-15. Kidding, kidding. If Daunte Culpepper can regain his 2004 form or Matthew Stafford can seize the starting job and have a Matt Ryan/Joe Flacco-esque impact, developing a chemistry with freak athlete Calvin Johnson, watch out! This team actually has a lot of youth that could progress quickly. I may be on my way to Palm Springs for saying this, but the Lions could come close to being a Wild Card team in 2009.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
On the plus side, the Lions have nowhere to go but up. The biggest key for them is the quarterback position. If Culpepper plays like he has for the last 4 years and Stafford looks like a rookie, the Lions will still probably win more games than they did last year...but not many.
Prediction
I think Detroit is going to be a sneaky team this year and provide some exciting flashes of a promising future. Daunte Cullpepper will exceed expectations and, after an eventual injury, Matthew Stafford will step in and play well (not Matt Ryan-ish, but well). I think they'll win at least 4 or 5 games and would not be shocked if they won 6 or 7.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Defensive Under Tackle – Grady Jackson will man the nose tackle position, but Detroit needs a replacement for Chuck Darby who had 1.5 sacks in 15 games last season. Someone to help clog the middle on Detroit's defensive line would pay dividends in both pass and run defense.
2.Left Tackle – The Lions need to protect their new investment's (when Stafford plays, that is) blind side and, barring an incredible year from Jeff Backus, he seems a suspect choice to do so. Detroit would do well to draft a blue chip left tackle in the mold of Oklahoma State's Russell Okung and move Backus to left guard.
3.Running Back – The strength of this position depends greatly on the scheme the Lions settle on in 2009. New Head Coach Jim Schwartz prefers a more power-oriented, road grading scheme while new Offensive Coordinator Scott Linehan prefers a zone blocking scheme. Running back Kevin Smith is a great fit for the latter, but a poor fit for the former. If Schwartz's preferred offense is employed, drafting a new rusher will be mandatory. If Linehan's zone blocking scheme is used, another running back would still be a nice addition as the NFL moves toward the employment of more rushing tandems as opposed to lone workhorses.
Up Next - Episode III: NFC South
2009-2010 NFL Preview - Episode I: NFC East
In a short time, this blog will be a more freeform expression of various sports-related opinions ranging from humorous to aggravating and from analytical to contemplative. However, it is early August already and time is quickly running out on me to do a much anticipated (by myself, that is) NFL season preview. Therefore, my first 8 posts will most likely be complete division-by-division previews of all 32 NFL teams and what is in store for them during the upcoming 2009-2010 NFL season. Included will be both season previews and projections regarding every team's needs leading up to and most likely to be addressed in the 2010 NFL Draft. So, let's kick off Episode I, which hopefully will contain more organic and sophisticated language and fewer plot holes than that other Episode I, The Phantom Menace.
1st: Philadelphia Eagles
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
In short, an NFL Championship. If Jeremy Maclin can at least provide a few big plays in the return and receiving games, that will go a long way in promising a successful season in Philadelphia. Also, Bryan Westbrook's health and LeSean McCoy's ability to spell him when needed will be key. Most importantly, however, will be Donovan McNabb's production. If he can play more like he did late in 2008 than he did early in 2008, one has to like the Eagles' chances.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
If McNabb struggles again this season and DeSean Jackson has a sophomore slump, the Eagles could miss the playoffs in a very difficult NFC East. Also, the passing of Defensive Coordinator Jim Johnson could make the season a difficult one for the Eagles emotionally.
Prediction
Winning 11 or 12 games, I think the Eagles will edge out the Giants for the division crown and make a deep playoff run, likely earning a Super Bowl berth.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1. Tight End – Andy Reid's offense employs a pass-first approach and Brent Celek isn't a game-changing replacement for L.J. Smith. The Eagles would do well to give McNabb, and possibly eventually Kevin Kolb, a safety valve at the position.
2. Possession Receiver – DeSean Jackson looks promising as a deep threat or possibly a slot receiver and Jeremy Maclin will likely be a playmaker in time. However, Philadelphia was poor in the red zone last year and does not have a bonafide go to receiver on third and fourth downs or in the red zone. A solid possession receiver would complement their current young group terrifically.
3. Cornerback – Sheldon Brown is unhappy in Philly and Ellis Hobbs is nothing to get excited about. The Eagles could use a right cornerback to start alongside Asante Samuel.
2nd: New York Giants
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
The Giants are a superior squad with a lot of talent and solid playoff experience. The key for them is at receiver. If their young corps can combine their talents to replace gun totin', toe shootin' Plaxico Burress, they are, without a doubt, a Super Bowl contender and a certain inclusion on any short list of NFC favorites.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
After Plaxico Burress's departure last season, the Giants' offensive production plummeted. If the new young receiving group fails to give Manning a couple of reliable weapons at a position that generally demands some maturity to make a significant impact, New York could suffer in an always-strong NFC East and lose a Wild Card game or barely miss the playoffs altogether.
Prediction
While the Giants' young receivers will provide some bright spots (Hakeem Nicks), they will still not be the explosive offense they were with Plaxico Burress. I see them having a solid 10-12 win season and making a deep playoff run, but losing in middle to late January.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1. Strong Safety – The Giants don't really have a glaring weakness. However, with C.C. Brown and Michael Johnson competing for the starting job at strong safety, they could use a playmaker beside free safety Kenny Phillips. Again, however, New York is in the enviable position to make all luxury picks.
2. Weakside Linebacker – While New York's linebacking corps is very solid, the Giants could use a superior blitzer to use on passing downs. A situational pass rusher would only make the New York Giants' defense that much scarier.
3. Left Tackle – David Diehl is a very good run blocker, but a questionable pass protector who struggles against speed rushers, of which the NFC East has plenty. While Diehl is very serviceable, a great pass protector would be icing on the cake for an offense that throws the ball a lot and will need to give a young receiving corps a little more time to get open than they needed with Plaxico Burress.
3rd: Dallas Cowboys
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Even after the departures of Terrell Owens, Adam Jones and Tank Johnson, Dallas still has a ton of talent on both sides of the ball and a ceiling, like that of their new stadium, tall enough to touch Xanadu. If the Cowboys indeed achieve addition by subtraction (Owens, Jones, Williams) and said subtractions help allow Tony Romo to emerge as a leader who can succeed late in the season and in the playoffs, the Cowboys are a Super Bowl caliber team.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
If Roy Williams cannot fill the void of production left in the wake of T.O.'s departure, Tony Romo continues to succeed only when his success matters least and Dallas' secondary still cannot produce interceptions, Wade Phillips will need to begin updating his resume to be a defensive coordinator somewhere else. If only 'perpetually flummoxed' and 'no leadership skills' looked good on resumes.
Prediction
The Cowboys level of success will lie somewhere between the above scenarios. 7-9 wins will amount to 3rd or 4th in the NFC East, the Cowboys will miss the playoffs and Wade Phillips will find himself searching for a new job and home.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1. 3-4 Left Defensive End – Marcus Spears is in the final year of his contract and needs a good 2009 if he intends on not being considered a bust. If he can absorb blocks and stop the run more effectively, he will take some pressure off of DeMarcus Ware and free him up to do what he does best, rush the quarterback.
2. Left Tackle – Flozelle Adams is on the downside of his career and nearing the end. He seems to be tiring well before January, a month during which Dallas needs to be both playing and winning sometime soon. The Cowboys must find his eventual replacement to protect Tony Romo's blind side.
3. Free Safety – While Ken Hamlin hasn't been horrible, he hasn't been outstanding either. The Cowboys need another ballhawk (aside from Terrence Newman at cornerback) to help them come up with a few more interceptions than they had last season.
4th: Washington Redskins
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
The Redskins are a team with a lot of holes and little hope despite being big players in free agency. Their best hope is that newly acquired and heavily paid Albert Haynesworth makes a huge impact on defense and Jason Campbell has a breakout season helped by the emergence of second year receivers Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly and second year tight end Fred Davis. If all of this happens, the Redskins could be a bubble playoff team.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
With no revelations, the Redskins will likely flounder and find themselves, yet again, at the bottom of the NFC East. Their worst case scenario sees Campbell and his receivers failing to make any significant strides, running back Clinton Portis continuing to decline due to age (though he's only 28) and Haynesworth's play reflecting little desire after his monstrous payday. In this scenario, the Redskins find themselves with a top 5 pick in next April's draft.
Prediction
I see a year closer to the latter scenario than the former. With 3 or 4 wins, the Redskins will be considering whether they prefer Sam Bradford, Jevan Snead or Colt McCoy by the middle of November.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1. West Coast Quarterback – Jason Campbell is not a good fit in Jim Zorn's West Coast system and severe diffidence in Campbell has already been shown during flirtations with acquiring both Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez. Assuming Jim Zorn isn't fired after this season, one would have to dislike Campbell's chances of not being replaced by a new young toy in the form a blue chip rookie quarterback; especially with Campbell entering the final year of his contract.
2. Run Stopping Defensive End – The Redskins drafted Orakpo to be a pass rushing defensive end and he'll likely replace Andre Carter there. However, Phillip Daniels is 36 and not the future on the other side. Look for Washington to be searching desperately for his replacement.
3. Strongside Linebacker – Outside of middle linebacker London Fletcher, Washington's linebackers all seem to be best suited at the weakside position. The Redskins need a run stopper who can cover a tight end on the strong side.
Up Next - Episode II: NFC North
1st: Philadelphia Eagles
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
In short, an NFL Championship. If Jeremy Maclin can at least provide a few big plays in the return and receiving games, that will go a long way in promising a successful season in Philadelphia. Also, Bryan Westbrook's health and LeSean McCoy's ability to spell him when needed will be key. Most importantly, however, will be Donovan McNabb's production. If he can play more like he did late in 2008 than he did early in 2008, one has to like the Eagles' chances.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
If McNabb struggles again this season and DeSean Jackson has a sophomore slump, the Eagles could miss the playoffs in a very difficult NFC East. Also, the passing of Defensive Coordinator Jim Johnson could make the season a difficult one for the Eagles emotionally.
Prediction
Winning 11 or 12 games, I think the Eagles will edge out the Giants for the division crown and make a deep playoff run, likely earning a Super Bowl berth.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1. Tight End – Andy Reid's offense employs a pass-first approach and Brent Celek isn't a game-changing replacement for L.J. Smith. The Eagles would do well to give McNabb, and possibly eventually Kevin Kolb, a safety valve at the position.
2. Possession Receiver – DeSean Jackson looks promising as a deep threat or possibly a slot receiver and Jeremy Maclin will likely be a playmaker in time. However, Philadelphia was poor in the red zone last year and does not have a bonafide go to receiver on third and fourth downs or in the red zone. A solid possession receiver would complement their current young group terrifically.
3. Cornerback – Sheldon Brown is unhappy in Philly and Ellis Hobbs is nothing to get excited about. The Eagles could use a right cornerback to start alongside Asante Samuel.
2nd: New York Giants
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
The Giants are a superior squad with a lot of talent and solid playoff experience. The key for them is at receiver. If their young corps can combine their talents to replace gun totin', toe shootin' Plaxico Burress, they are, without a doubt, a Super Bowl contender and a certain inclusion on any short list of NFC favorites.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
After Plaxico Burress's departure last season, the Giants' offensive production plummeted. If the new young receiving group fails to give Manning a couple of reliable weapons at a position that generally demands some maturity to make a significant impact, New York could suffer in an always-strong NFC East and lose a Wild Card game or barely miss the playoffs altogether.
Prediction
While the Giants' young receivers will provide some bright spots (Hakeem Nicks), they will still not be the explosive offense they were with Plaxico Burress. I see them having a solid 10-12 win season and making a deep playoff run, but losing in middle to late January.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1. Strong Safety – The Giants don't really have a glaring weakness. However, with C.C. Brown and Michael Johnson competing for the starting job at strong safety, they could use a playmaker beside free safety Kenny Phillips. Again, however, New York is in the enviable position to make all luxury picks.
2. Weakside Linebacker – While New York's linebacking corps is very solid, the Giants could use a superior blitzer to use on passing downs. A situational pass rusher would only make the New York Giants' defense that much scarier.
3. Left Tackle – David Diehl is a very good run blocker, but a questionable pass protector who struggles against speed rushers, of which the NFC East has plenty. While Diehl is very serviceable, a great pass protector would be icing on the cake for an offense that throws the ball a lot and will need to give a young receiving corps a little more time to get open than they needed with Plaxico Burress.
3rd: Dallas Cowboys
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Even after the departures of Terrell Owens, Adam Jones and Tank Johnson, Dallas still has a ton of talent on both sides of the ball and a ceiling, like that of their new stadium, tall enough to touch Xanadu. If the Cowboys indeed achieve addition by subtraction (Owens, Jones, Williams) and said subtractions help allow Tony Romo to emerge as a leader who can succeed late in the season and in the playoffs, the Cowboys are a Super Bowl caliber team.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
If Roy Williams cannot fill the void of production left in the wake of T.O.'s departure, Tony Romo continues to succeed only when his success matters least and Dallas' secondary still cannot produce interceptions, Wade Phillips will need to begin updating his resume to be a defensive coordinator somewhere else. If only 'perpetually flummoxed' and 'no leadership skills' looked good on resumes.
Prediction
The Cowboys level of success will lie somewhere between the above scenarios. 7-9 wins will amount to 3rd or 4th in the NFC East, the Cowboys will miss the playoffs and Wade Phillips will find himself searching for a new job and home.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1. 3-4 Left Defensive End – Marcus Spears is in the final year of his contract and needs a good 2009 if he intends on not being considered a bust. If he can absorb blocks and stop the run more effectively, he will take some pressure off of DeMarcus Ware and free him up to do what he does best, rush the quarterback.
2. Left Tackle – Flozelle Adams is on the downside of his career and nearing the end. He seems to be tiring well before January, a month during which Dallas needs to be both playing and winning sometime soon. The Cowboys must find his eventual replacement to protect Tony Romo's blind side.
3. Free Safety – While Ken Hamlin hasn't been horrible, he hasn't been outstanding either. The Cowboys need another ballhawk (aside from Terrence Newman at cornerback) to help them come up with a few more interceptions than they had last season.
4th: Washington Redskins
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
The Redskins are a team with a lot of holes and little hope despite being big players in free agency. Their best hope is that newly acquired and heavily paid Albert Haynesworth makes a huge impact on defense and Jason Campbell has a breakout season helped by the emergence of second year receivers Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly and second year tight end Fred Davis. If all of this happens, the Redskins could be a bubble playoff team.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
With no revelations, the Redskins will likely flounder and find themselves, yet again, at the bottom of the NFC East. Their worst case scenario sees Campbell and his receivers failing to make any significant strides, running back Clinton Portis continuing to decline due to age (though he's only 28) and Haynesworth's play reflecting little desire after his monstrous payday. In this scenario, the Redskins find themselves with a top 5 pick in next April's draft.
Prediction
I see a year closer to the latter scenario than the former. With 3 or 4 wins, the Redskins will be considering whether they prefer Sam Bradford, Jevan Snead or Colt McCoy by the middle of November.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1. West Coast Quarterback – Jason Campbell is not a good fit in Jim Zorn's West Coast system and severe diffidence in Campbell has already been shown during flirtations with acquiring both Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez. Assuming Jim Zorn isn't fired after this season, one would have to dislike Campbell's chances of not being replaced by a new young toy in the form a blue chip rookie quarterback; especially with Campbell entering the final year of his contract.
2. Run Stopping Defensive End – The Redskins drafted Orakpo to be a pass rushing defensive end and he'll likely replace Andre Carter there. However, Phillip Daniels is 36 and not the future on the other side. Look for Washington to be searching desperately for his replacement.
3. Strongside Linebacker – Outside of middle linebacker London Fletcher, Washington's linebackers all seem to be best suited at the weakside position. The Redskins need a run stopper who can cover a tight end on the strong side.
Up Next - Episode II: NFC North
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