1st: Seattle Seahawks
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Seattle is a much better team than they demonstrated last season as injuries piled up early and often. With that said, they are also an aging team and injuries are beginning to crop up already this season. Despite their obvious shortcomings, I fully expect the Seahawks to bounce back this season. Winning the NFC West is well within reach. A deep playoff run, on the other hand, would shock me. I see this team's ceiling being 9 or 10 wins.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Even if injuries mount again, I don't see Seattle repeating 2008. The lowest win total I can see them achieving is around 5 or 6. The key is Matt Hasselbeck. If he can stay healthy, they shouldn't have to worry about having a season worse than 8-8. If can't stay healthy, only 5 or 6 wins is quite likely.
Prediction
I actually like the Seahawks to edge out the 49ers for the division crown by either a game or via a tie-breaker. Even as an aging squad, they have enough talent to be a playoff team again. However, I don't see them winning more than one playoff game. Even winning one will be difficult.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Left Tackle – Walter Jones is breaking down before our eyes and protecting the also aging Matt Hasselbeck is mandatory. Seattle needs to find a franchise left tackle soon, because there's no telling how much longer Walter Jones will be able to hold on. Until they do, Hasselbeck will be constantly under pressure and running backs Julius Jones and Edgerring James, who was just acquired, will find very little running room on the left side.
2.Quarterback – First, let me say this; Assuming he can stay (get?) healthy, I think Hasselbeck has a few good years left in him. Nevertheless, with a new head coach and a strong upcoming quarterback class, the Seahawks would do well to groom his eventual replacement. Matt Ryans and Joe Flaccos are a rarity and giving a quarterback 2 or 3 years in the NFL before starting them has a much higher success rate than immediately throwing them to the wolves.
3. Defensive Tackle – While Seattle's defensive line isn't a particularly weak one, they play in a Tampa 2 scheme that relies heavily on pressure from their front four. Last season, they struggled getting to opposing quarterbacks and, consequently, their entire defense, particularly their secondary, took a huge step back. Getting Patrick Kerney back at defensive end from injury will help, but Seattle can't continue to depend so greatly on an aging, run-stuffing end to harass opposing teams' quarterbacks.
2nd: San Francisco 49ers
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Don't look now (or look, I don't really care), but interim-head-coach-turned-official-head-coach Mike Singletary has this team buying what he's selling and seemingly moving collectively in the right direction. With Arizona trying to bounce back from a Super Bowl loss (something that has been historically difficult), Seattle following a rough season with some key injuries on the offensive line and St. Louis in full-fledged rebuilding mode, San Francisco should aim high with expectations of an NFC West divisional crown. The 49ers should be much improved on both sides of the ball in 2009. With Patrick Willis becoming a defensive leader and superstar and the offense having many young, emerging weapons I like what the Niners are doing. Call me crazy, but I don't think 10 wins and a division crown are out of the question in San Francisco.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
If Shaun Hill and/or Alex Smith fail to impress this season and a lack of defensive pass rush exposes San Francisco's secondary, this team could be in for a long season. Another potential downfall is the Michael Crabtree situation. His holdout could go well into the season, if not through the entire season. Such a distraction could be a difficult one for the team (or, more likely, their media) to ignore. All of these potential negatives could comprise a season to forget? Number of wins in such a scenario? No more than 5.
Prediction
I can't believe I'm about to say these two words, but I'm goig to. Wild Card. I think the 49ers will earn a 2nd place finish in the NFC West behind Seattle and the 5th or 6th seed in the NFC playoffs. As for Crabtree, the future is much too murky to predict. I say he's officially a 49er by late September...or not.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Cornerback – After Walt Harris tore his ACL this offseason, cornerback is by far San Francisco's biggest need. Nate Clements is a solid corner, but there is a large, electric sign blinking 'vacancy' opposite him. Even when Harris was healthy, it was clear that he is well on the decline and the 49ers need to quickly find his replacement. Dre' Bly will likely fill in for Harris in 2009, but it is highly doubtful he is a long term solution and not a short term fix. Cornerback Joe Haden is someone the Niners' scouts should be keeping an eye on in college football this fall and early winter.
2.3-4 Outside Pass Rushing Linebacker – The 49ers are stout in the middle with Patrick Willis and Takeo Spikes, but they're less than outstanding on the outside. Parys Harralson has shown some promise, but Manny Lawson needs to emerge if San Francisco is going to pencil him in as part of their future on the outside. The Niners' defensive line is serviceable, but not superior. In other words, they need some help getting to the quarterback; especially with their gaping hole at cornerback. If Lawson doesn't step up, this position will be heavily on coach Singletary's mind going into the draft. Especially since Singletary himself was a linebacker, likely increasing his investment in building a great one in San Francisco.
3.Quarterback – If Shaun Hill or Alex Smith doesn't step up dramatically this season, the quarterback position has got to go to the top of the list of needs in the city by the bay. With 2010 looking to be a great draft for franchise quarterbacks, a great one would probably be there for the taking. However, Singletary seems to like Shaun Hill for now. He's not flashy, but he has a toughness and a consistency Singletary likes. Also, keep an eye on rookie Nate Davis out of Ball State. He was slated as a potential late 1st rounder or early 2nd rounder a few months before the draft – when the 49ers took him in the 5th round.
3rd: Arizona Cardinals
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
With an improved defense and a virtually unchanged offense (other than drafting running back Chris Wells and immediately releasing Edgerrin James), Arizona should have no doubt that another Super Bowl appearance with a different result is within reach. They're talented enough to do it barring injury and possess the intangibles necessary unless last February's loss proves to be too psychologically detrimental to overcome. Arizona is not at all unrealistic to think Lombardi Trophy.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Some think that during their 2008 playoff run, the Cardinals “caught lightning in a bottle”, as Paul Allen of Minneapolis/St. Paul's KFAN says. They were certainly a different team in January than they had been for most of the 2008 NFL season. Their offensive line and defense dramatically overachieved late in 2008 and, if Arizona reverts back to 2008 regular season form, they could very well miss the playoffs altogether in 2009.
Prediction
I don't expect the Cardinals to follow up their Cinderella season with another one. I see them 2nd behind Seattle or 3rd behind both Seattle and San Francisco in the NFC West when the regular season ends. Their defense will return to Earth and Kurt Warner will begin to look like what he is – a 38 year old man playing quarterback in the NFL. As far as a win total, they'll hover right around 8 wins.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.3-4 Defensive End – Arizona's defense plays their fair share of both the 3-4 and 4-3 schemes. When they play in the 3-4 (a look they employ more than 50% of the time), their defensive line tends to be a little undersized – typically when defending the running game. Playing better against the run and forcing teams to throw into their very good and improving secondary will only bolster their chances of returning to the Super Bowl in 2009 as NFC Champion.
2.3-4 Outside Linebacker – Again, the Cardinals play in a 3-4 scheme more than half the time and, even in the 4-3, they're a little light on solid linebackers. Their linebacking corps doesn't put enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks – a weakness a speedy pass rushing linebacker would greatly improve. Even after drafting Cody Brown in the 2nd round of last year's draft, don't be surprised if Ken Whisenhunt commits much of his energy during next offseason to loading up on athletic linebackers. Afterall, Chike Okeafor is getting old and Whisenhunt, having coached both for and against the Steelers, knows as well as anyone what a superior 3-4 linebacking group can do for a defense.
3.Tight End – Even with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin in tow, the Cardinals potent offense could use a big safety valve for Kurt Warner (and possibly eventually Matt Leinart) at the tight end position. Leonard Pope and Ben Patrick have been slowed by injuries and unspectacular even when healthy. Another weapon to make opposing defenses concern themselves with would also take a little pressure off of Fitzgerald, Boldin and Steve Breaston, already probably the best receiving trio in the NFL.
4th: St. Louis Rams
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
I may be in the minority, but I think the Rams are closer to being a good football team than many think. New head coach Steve Spagnuolo will bring a toughness to this team they haven't had in a while and with solid drafting as of late, they have have some good, young talent both on offense and defense. I wouldn't be shocked if St. Louis approached 8 or 9 wins and found themselves fighting for a Wild Card spot in late December. However, an NFC West divisional crown seems at least a couple seasons away.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
The Rams are probably still the worst team in the division and I see 3 or 4 wins and a top 5 draft pick well within the realm of possibility. While I see an improved team in 2009, I don't necessarily see that improvement manifesting itself in the wi/loss column. If the offensive line's woes continue, Marc Bulger and his young receiving corp will struggle and place, yet again, way too much pressure on the Predator-look-alike Steven Jackson. On the defense, St. Louis' youth will be key. If Chris Long, Justin King and James Laurinaitis find 2009 to be a season riddled with rookie bumps and bruises along the way, the Rams will be no threat in even the relatively weak NFC West.
Prediction
The Rams will be much improved in 2009. Unfortunately, I can see them netting no more than 5 wins and a top 7 to 10 draft pick. I really like Steve Spagnuolo and the direction in which this team is going. I just think it will take a while for them to get there.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Right Tackle – Left tackle Alex Barron is going into a contract year and has been a bit of a disappointment on St. Louis' offensive line thus far. In addition, his attitude is questionable and not likely to mix well with new head coach Steve Spagnuolo's personality and philosophy. If Barron makes big strides both on the football field and in the locker room, he may find himself moved to right tackle in 2010 with rookie draftee Jason Smith likely being ready to anchor the line on the left side. If he shows little to no improvement, he'll probably find himself in a different NFL city and the Rams will need someone to, along with Smith, bookend the Rams' line. At this stage, one would have to view the latter scenario as the more likely one.
2.Quarterback – While Marc Bulger has not been very productive in St. Louis, much of it has not been his fault. However, unless there's already a proven signal caller on the roster, new head coaches usually like to personally handpick their potential franchise quarterbacks and Spagnuolo is probably no different. The 2010 NFL Draft looks to be loaded with mouth watering talent at the position. Potential prospects include the likes of Oklahoma's Sam Bradford, Ole Miss' Jevan Snead, Texas' Colt McCoy, Florida's Tim Tebow, Central Michigan's Dan LeFevour and Western Michigan's Tim Hiller. Barring a breakout year from Bulger, any of these prospects could be very difficult to pass on come late April.
3. Cornerback – Ron Bartell has one cornerback position sewed up, but the other remains up for grabs. Competition for the position includes pseudo-bust Tye Hill and youngster Justin King. Neither of these options looks to be a standout corner in a subpar secondary. If a promising cornerback is available at a good value spot when the Rams select in the first or second round in 2010, don't be surprised if St. Louis doesn't hesitate to call his name shortly after being placed on the clock.
Up Next: Episode V - AFC East
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