1st: Atlanta Falcons
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
The surprise team of 2008 looks to be a solid team in 2009 as well. If Matt Ryan can avoid a sophomore slump, a virtually nameless offensive line can continue to surprise and their abundance of youth in the defense and step in immediately and contribute, Atlanta should win the NFC South. While I don't foresee a deep playoff run, the Divisional round is, by no means, out of reach.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
The key here is Matt Ryan. If he struggles in his second year with defenses (and their coordinators) having tape on him, Atlanta could easily plummet all the way back down to Earth. Their floor is 3rd place, behind Carolina and New Orleans and ahead of Tampa Bay.
Prediction
The Falcons should win the NFC South even with a solid Panther squad and an explosive Saints team in the division. I see 10 or 11 wins out of Atlanta and possibly even a playoff win.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Strongside Linebacker – In 2009, the Falcons will depend on Stephen Nicholas to step up and assume the hole at strongside linebacker. Nicholas has played only on special teams for Atlanta and is no sure thing at linebacker. Additionally, Atlanta's secondary made far too many tackles last year for linebacker to not be considered a need area – unless Nicholas has a breakout year, that is.
2.Strong Safety – Former Cal standout safety Thomas DeCoud will likely play alongside free safety Erik Coleman this season. DeCoud's experience is strictly on special teams and he is no safe (no pun intended) bet to be an impact player in the Falcons' secondary. If he struggles, Atlanta would likely be on the lookout for an impact strong safety next April, especially with the position being directly behind another need position in strongside linebacker.
3.Possession Receiver – Roddy White is a consistent deep threat and Michael Jenkins is a good slot receiver. However, the Falcons could use a tall, physical possession receiver. Even with the acquisition of Tony Gonzalez at tight end, Matt Ryan would undoubtedly benefit from another safety valve to move the chains on third downs.
2nd: Carolina Panthers
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
The Panthers have enough talent to make a deep playoff run. If they can do what the Steelers did in 2008 and survive an extremely difficult schedule, they're built to win in the playoffs (contrary to what we saw from them against the Cardinals last postseason) with a dominant rushing game and a stifling defense. Barring a significant decline from any one of their many aging veterans, the Panthers will be good. How good remains to be seen. I could see the Panthers being a Super Bowl contender – assuming they're season goes relatively smoothly and they remain a playoff team.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
As is stated above, the Panthers have a rough schedule. The one game they play against a team that was not .500 or above last season is a Buffalo Bills squad that was 7-9. A hangover from last season's potentially demoralizing loss to Arizona in the playoffs could conceivably leave this team near the bottom of the NFC South in 2009.
Prediction
The Panthers will likely be a 2nd place Wild Card team this season. Finishing behind the Falcons, I think they'll have an 8 or 9 win season and a Divisional round exit from the playoffs in 2009. With a disappointing season, John Fox will likely find himself on the hot seat as the Panthers have no 1st round selection next April (traded to San Francisco), Julius Peppers is probably on his way out and signing Jake Delhomme, who's 34 years old, to a long-term contract extension could look like a disastrous decision.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Cornerback – Richard Marshall is stepping in for the departed (not dead, I should clarify) Ken Lucas. Marshall has not proven anything yet and Carolina could use a coverman opposite Chris Gamble.
2.Strongside Linebacker – Na'il Diggs is solid, but could be upgraded on an otherwise above average defensive front seven. He's also going into his 10th season so the Panthers would do well to find an eventual replacement regardless of his performance in 2009.
3.Possession Receiver – Thus far, Dwayne Jarrett has been disappointing and Muhsin Muhammad is 36 years old. Carolina needs someone who will be able to take some pressure off of Steve Smith, the Panthers' best offensive weapon. John Fox is ultra conservative and would probably rather the forward pass be illegal in the NFL, but unless he wants to be shown the door after 2009, he needs to locate a passing game outside the occasional Steve Smith post pattern.
3rd: New Orleans Saints
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Probably a division title. The Saints offense has the potential to be as good as any in the league, but unfortunately for New Orleans, playing defense is also important. However, if new offensive coordinator Gregg Williams can bring dramatic improvement to the Saints defense, this team could be one of the best in the NFC. I think their ceiling is the Divisional round. Winning on the road outside in cold weather in December and January will not be easy for this team and they're bound to play games like that unless they win Homefield Advantage throughout the playoffs...which is very unlikely.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
A 3rd place finish in the NFC South – thanks to Tampa Bay. If their offense stalls at all in the regular season and their defense doesn't significantly exceed expectations, the Saints will have a very difficult go of it in an ultra competitive NFC South. In this scenario, missing the playoffs and having a top 10 or 15 pick in next April's draft is almost a given.
Prediction
Unfortunately for the Saints, I think they're 2009 season will be more like their floor than their ceiling. I just don't see them surpassing either Atlanta or Carolina. Even less likely, however, is their being surpassed by Tampa Bay. Things are looking a lot like between 6 and 8 wins and a 3rd place finish in the NFC South.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Free Safety – Darren Sharper is not the answer to New Orleans' secondary's woes of a year ago. He's lost more than a step and, if the Saints are going to improve their defense enough to make them a Super Bowl team, they'll need a long term answer at the position.
2.Every Down Running Back – All we need to know is that New Orleans attempted to trade up to draft Chris “Beanie” Wells last April. Reggie Bush is a good return specialist and receiver in the flat, but he is no every down back who will give you yardage between the tackles when needed. Pierre Thomas looks promising, but doesn't have the homerun hitting capability the Saints were looking for when they tried to trade up for Wells.
3.Pass Rushing Defensive End – Charles Grant had a disappointing 2008 and the Saints paid for it. They got very little pressure on opposing quarterbacks, allowing them to expose their weak secondary. If they're to take the next step toward a Lombardi trophy, a pass rush is mandatory.
4th: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
In short, very little. Tampa Bay is in rebuilding mode and I can't imagine them winning more than 3 or 4 games. In their case, a best case scenario involves Josh Freeman showing that he can be their quarterback of the future no matter what Tampa Bay's record is in 2009.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
The 2008 Detroit Lions. The 1st or 2nd pick in next year's draft is well within reach. All they have to do is aim low and reach for the pits of Hell and they'll come very close.
Prediction
I see only 2 or 3 wins for the Buccaneers this year. Both the offense and defense have undergone big changes and this team is looking to the future. In the end, their 2009 season will be more about assessing team needs than wins and losses.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1.Defensive Tackle – Chris Hovan is a solid player in his own right, but does not fit new defensive coordinator Jim Bates' scheme. Bates prefers bulkier defensive tackles. Tampa Bay is in rebuilding mode and I expect them to start on defense, where their bread has been buttered for so many years. It would make sense for the Bucs to begin in the trenches.
2.Strong Safety – Scabby Piscitelli is likely not the answer at strong safety and the position is key in fixing Tampa Bay's secondary. With prospects like Eric Berry out of Tennessee and USC's Taylor Mays potentially available next spring, don't count out the Buccaneers drafting one in the first round.
3.Deep Threat Wide Receiver – Antonio Bryant had a good season with Tampa Bay last year as a possession type receiver. He did so with no real threat opposite him. The Buccaneers would do well to draft a Dez Bryant-esque player in 2010 to stretch defenses out by giving them a reason to cover the deep part of the field.
Next Up: Episode IV - NFC West
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