1st: New England Patriots
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
See 2007 New England Patriots (minus one, fairly important game). With Tom Brady back at the helm, the sky is the limit for New England. The Patriots should expect nothing less than complete inclusion in Super Bowl contention in late January. This is a Super Bowl caliber team and has to be on the short list of Super Bowl favorites heading into the 2009 NFL Season. Another 16-0? That may be a little too much to expect, but I wouldn't be entire shocked if it happened.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
See 2008 New England Patriots (minus a surprisingly efficient fill-in job done by a backup quarterback). Assuming everybody stays healthy this season, I can't see the Patriots winning fewere than 11 or 12 games. Even if Tom Brady finds re-familiarizing himself with playing football more difficult than expected, New England has superior talent, coaching and intangibles. I would be very surprised if the Patriots didn't reclaim the top spot in the AFC East this season.
Prediction
I'll get right to the point. The Patriots are my early 2009 Super Bowl favorite. With Tom Brady fully recovered from his ACL injury of a year ago, New England just has too much going for them to not like. The key for the Patriots will be the performance of their defense which is very young in the secondary, very old on the line and a mixture of both extremes at linebacker. If the defense plays well, anything less than a Super Bowl victory in New England will be a serious disappointment.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1. 3-4 Hybrid Inside/Strongside Linebacker – Tedy Bruschi has retired and Adalius Thomas is getting older and near the end of his career. Add to consideration the fact that Bill Belichek loves versatility in his linebacking corp and secondary, making for diversity and flexibility in New England's defensive formations. Look for the Patriots to draft a top-flight linebacker who possesses the ability to succeed on either side of upcoming star right inside linebacker Jerod Mayo. Linebacker is a key position in a base 3-4 defense and the position's importance is no different in Mr. Belichek's version.
2. 3-4 Nose Tackle – Vince Wilfork is also getting older and heading into the final season of his contract. It's time for the Patriots to begin grooming his replacement. Making the position even more important to address is the fact that Richard Seymour, New England's right defensive end is also long in the tooth and heading into a contract year. The Patriots would do well to give the defensive line a little attention as soon as possible and, in the 3-4, success all begins with a space and block eating man in the middle.
3. 3-4 Right Defensive End – For the reasons stated above, Richard Seymour's replacement needs to be found soon. Unless Jarvis Green is the ultimate answer at right defensive end, New England needs to find one whether Seymour and the Patriots can agree on a contract extension or not.
2nd: New York Jets
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
2nd place in the AFC East. Overtaking the Patriots is too much to expect this year, I think. However, overtaking the Dolphins, last year's AFC East crown winner, is an exceedingly reachable goal. The Jets have a lot of talent and leadership on defense and a few weapons to go along with their impressive rookie quarterback. In my estimation, their ceiling is 10 or 11 wins, a 2nd place finish in the AFC East and a divisional round appearance in the AFC Playoffs.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
The Jets underwent a lot of change in the offseason. They have a new quarterback and a new head coach. Both Coach Ryan and Sanchez will need to do a lot of on-the-job training and it will likely take them a little time to settle into their new roles on Broadway (I didn't intend that, but I like it). If there are more bumps and bruises than I foresee, a 3rd place finish and 6 or 7 wins seems likely. Falling behind Buffalo in the division, however, just doesn't seem within the realm of possibility in '09.
Prediction
I have a good feeling about the Jets this season. I think their season will more resemble their ceiling than their floor. Similar to Matt Ryan last season, I think Sanchez will have a solid season and falter somewhat in the playoffs. I like the Jets to earn 9 or 10 wins, 2nd place in the division behind New England and a Wild Card round road exit from the playoffs.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1. #1 Wide Receiver – Jerricho Cotchery would be a good #2 receiver, but he's not a #1. David Clowney, Chansi Stuckey and Brad Smith are good fits for specific roles and niches, but don't keep defensive coordinators dreaming of X's and O's at night. The Jets need to give young Mark Sanchez a weapon if he's to find great success early in his career.
2. 3-4 Left Defensive End – Shaun Ellis is aging and really began to decline last season. New head coach Rex Ryan did an excellent job of building the defense in the offseason but, unless Vernon Gholston could potentially play on the defensive line, New York needs to get younger and more stout at left end.
3. Running Back – I know, I know. They just drafted Shonn Greene out of Iowa and Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are still on the roster. However, Greene isn't necessarily an every-down back, Jones is unhappy with his contract and likely won't be a Jet for long and Washington, while being a playmaker and having a large role, isn't designed to take on a huge workload. The NFL is a two back league and, unless Jones decides he loves New York and wants to retire a Jet, the green and white would do well to find a running back to complement Greene and Washington.
3rd: Miami Dolphins
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Unless the New England returns to their 2007 form, Miami has every reason to believe that another AFC East title is very a much a possibility in 2009. On paper, they had a very intriguing draft that could potentially pay huge dividends immediately. Pat White, Vontae Davis and Sean Smith could all see significant playing time and find solid success in 2009. If a likely tweaked Wildcat offense can succeed despite NFL defensive coordinators having had an offseason to break it down on film and locate and exploit its weaknesses, Miami could enjoy a terrific 2009 season. Combined with an upgraded defense (barring any unforeseen challenges stemming from health and age), the Dolphins look to improve upon their Cinderella 2008 season and make a deep playoff run. Ultimately, 10 or 11 wins and a Divisional Round appearance is quite possible. Anything beyond that would surprise me almost as much as the Dolphins' 2008 campaign.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
On offense, if the NFL's defensive coordinators can find ways to stop the Wildcat (after much film study) and Chad Pennington has another post-NFL Comeback Player of the Year award disappointing season, the offense will struggle mightily in 2009. On defense, Joey Porter's and Jason Taylor's ages, Phillip Merling's development and a young secondary will be keys. If these elements go the wrong way in 2009, the Dolphins will be in for a long season. This team could feasibly be victims of a fall from grace resulting in a net total of 4 or 5 wins.
Prediction
With many questions surrounding the Dolphins and a more difficult schedule in 2009 including a New England Patriots team with Tom Brady back in the fold, repeat success is no sure thing in Miami. While I don't see them collapsing after their miracle year, I do see a step backwards this season. A healthy Tom Brady and a very solid Jets squad will see the Dolphins follow up their divisioal championship year with a disappointing 3rd place finish – ahead of only Buffalo. A mid 1st round pick in 2010 and a win/loss record of right around .500 will make last season a distant memory in South Florida.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1. Outside Pass Rushing Linebacker – Returnee Jason Taylor is at the tail end of his career and the 3-4 is very dependant on its linebacking corp. Also, Parcells loves drafting linebackers early, so look for the Dolphins to find Taylor's replacement in 2010.
2. 3-4 Nose Tackle – Jason Ferguson has played well despite entering his mid 30s, but it's only a matter of time until he begins to physically decline. He's 34 heading into the 2009 season and Miami would do well to find a young, aggressive space eater to groom under him.
3. Possession Receiver – Even with the emergence of rookie Brian Hartline and the potential carried by other rookie Patrick Turner, the Dolphins could use a prototypical number 1 receiver to play opposite the speedy Tedd Ginn Jr. With him on one side and Davone Bess in the slot, Miami has a couple of solid role players, but really have no consistent chain mover or redzone target. A tall, physical receiver would give the Dolphins' passing game another dimension they don't have right now. If Hartline or Turner surprise, Miami could look elsewhere. However, there's certainly no guarantee that Hartline, a 4th round selection, nor Turner, a 3rd round selection, possess the necessary skills or potential.
4th: Buffalo Bills
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
If Terrell Owens can have a positive effect on the Bills offense, and specifically Trent Edwards and his development, that will be huge for Buffalo. Add rookie Aaron Maybin instantly providing a pass rush for a defense that has some solid talent and the Bills could surprise a few people. If these things happen and Miami stumbles a little after their Cinderella 2008 season, Buffalo could earn a 3rd place finish in the AFC East with between 6 and 8 wins. I just don't see them doing any better than that, however.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
If T.O.'s a cancer, Maybin's a bust and the Bills' young, patchwork offensive line fails miserably, the floor's the limit for Buffalo. In this scenario, 4 or 5 wins is too much to ask for. A top 3 or 5 pick in next April's draft and 2 or 3 wins would be more likely.
Prediction
Unfortunately for the Bills, their floor is closer than their ceiling. I don't like their prospects for the 2009 season. Owens is an awkward fit for a franchise still questioning if their quarterback will be their franchise signal caller. Additionally, Lynch's three game suspension will likely help put them in a hole early in the season and Aaron Maybin seems like a bit of a project and I don't expect him to have a big impact early. Come April, I think Buffalo will have a draft pick somewhere between #s 5 and 10 and 3 or 4 wins total in the 2009 campaign.
Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft
1. Strongside Linebacker – Buffalo's is the only 4-3 defense remaining in the AFC East. Consequently, offensive lines have bulked up and the Bills' defensive line is a little undersized when matching up against them. Making matters worse is the hole on the strong side of the linebacking corp in an otherwise above average group. Currently, Keith Ellison is manning the position, but the sense is that he's overachieving and is still the weak link of the group. The Bills need a playmaker at the position and Ellison will probably never be that.
2. 4-3 Nose Tackle – For some of the same reasons listed under Buffalo's #1 need, strongside linebacker, Buffalo could use a larger, more physically dominant nose tackle. Kyle Williams is solid at the position, but could be upgraded with extremely positive results. Additionally, if the Bills end up converting to the 3-4, like the rest of their division, a monstrous force that can eat up blocks in the middle would make the transition dramatically easier.
3. Left Tackle – Jason Peters is a Philadelphia Eagle and, in his place, Langston Walker will be moving over from the right side with former right guard Brad Butler taking his place. There's no telling how Buffalo's newly shuffled offensive line will perform – especially with rookies Eric Wood and Andy Levitre looking to start at the guard positions. If Walker is underwhelming at his new position in 2009, the Bills would be wise to draft a franchise left tackle in the early rounds of the 2010 NFL Draft. If, and that's a big 'if', Trent Edwards is going to be the Bills franchise quarterback, he's going to need to be confident in his blind side protection.
Up Next: Episode VI: AFC North
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