2009-2010 NFL Preview - Episode II: NFC North

1st: Minnesota Vikings


The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009

It's been said before and I'll say it again. The Vikings are a championship caliber football team without a quarterback. If Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson shows himself to be a potential NFL franchise quarterback, this team will be elite. If this becomes the case, anything less than an NFC Championship appearance will be a serious disappointment.


The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009

If the Vikings still don't have a viable quarterback by late in the 2009 season, Minnesota is likely to just miss the playoffs or be a Wild Card round playoff casualty yet again. If they don't find a quarterback, Tyrell Johnson doesn't adequately replace Darren Sharper, Antoine Winfield begins to show his age and Percy Harvin is a bust, an NFC North Divisional crown is unlikely in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.


Prediction

Look for Minnesota to get inconsistent, but serviceable play from the quarterback position whether it's from Rosenfels or Jackson. I see another NFC North championship, a Wild Card weekend victory and a Divisional Round loss in 2009. As far as wins, somewhere between 10 and 12 seems about right.


Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft

1.West Coast Quarterback – If Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson don't emerge as franchise quarterbacks this season, look for Minnesota to look for one in the draft; especially if Coach Brad Childress isn't invited back for the 2010 season. And, no, John David Booty probably won't be an option. Luckily for the Vikings, next year's crop of incoming quarterbacks should be bountiful. Between Sam Bradford, Jevan Snead, Colt McCoy, Dan LeFevour and Tim Hiller, Minnesota would seem bound to come out of the 2010 NFL Draft with someone they could develop for the future.

2.Nose Tackle – Pat Williams is getting old and the Vikings need to start thinking about his potential replacement. Fred Evans could be a serviceable, short term band-aid, but is not and never will be the dominant nose tackle Phat Pat is.

3.Weakside Linebacker – Ben Leber is a good, cerebral-if-not-overly-athletic weakside linebacker, but he's getting a little older. Drafting an explosive pass rushing right defensive end to play behind Jared Allen would give the Vikings a downright scary presence on the right side.


2nd: Chicago Bears


The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009

The Bears are a difficult team to project for the 2009-2010 season. A lot could go well, but a lot could also go poorly. If Jay Cutler can make use of young weapons Earl Bennett and Joaquin Iglesias and help Devin Hester have a bounce-back season, the offense could be explosive – especially with the very well rounded Matt Forte in the fold. Also Orlando Pace comes to an offensive line with some talent. If the group can gel in its first year together, good things will happen in Chicago. I see their ceiling being a Divisional Playoff game or perhaps even an NFC Championship Game appearance.


The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009

As has been stated before, a lot could go wrong for the Bears. The defense is aging and in obvious decline and the offense is riddled with question marks. When disappointing return specialist-turned-receiver Devin Hester is your top receiving threat, your offensive line is comprised of utter strangers and Jay Cutler brings to town with him potential locker room and chemistry issues, there isn't a lot of certainty on which to hang a hat. If these question marks become negatives, Chicago will likely be a 3rd place team in a fairly weak division and miss the playoffs by a long shot.


Prediction

I think the Chicago Bears will have an up and down 2009. They'll hover somewhere around 8-8, be a 2nd or 3rd place team in the NFC North and miss the playoffs.


Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft

1.Pass Rushing Defensive End – The Bears need to create more of a pass rush to take some pressure off their aging linebacking corps and secondary. Adewale Ogunleye is one of Chicago's aging defenders and is in rapid decline. In reality, Alex Brown, who plays on the right side, is effective against the run and may be a better fit on the left side. Then, the Bears could put a young, explosive pass rusher on the right side.

2.Free Safety – Chicago's glut of safeties is high in quantity and low in quality. Strong Safety Kevin Payne needs a more dynamic safety to assist him in safety-related duties.

3.Strongside Linebacker – I don't think either Nick Roach or Hunter Hillenmeyer is the long term answer here. Hillenmeyer is a smart, reliable reserve and Nick Roach is heading into a contract year. If Roach doesn't emerge as the future at the position in 2009, look for this position to be addressed next April.


3rd: Green Bay Packers


The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009

Green Bay has a lot of bright spots with Aaron Rodgers not being the least of them. If he can follow up an impressive 2008 campaign with an even better 2009, the Packers' offense will be a difficult one to stop. If that happens and the defense, specifically Aaron Kampman, makes a smooth transition to the 3-4 defense, an NFC North crown is certainly not out of the question. In this scenario, the Packers could be as good as anyone in the NFC and I wouldn't be surprised to see them play in the NFC Championship game.


The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009

If Chad Clifton finally breaks down entirely, giving Aaron Rodgers no time in the pocket, and the defense (again, specifically Aaron Kampman) struggles to adapt to the 3-4, the Packers are in for a long season. If this is the case for Green Bay, they'll probably finish 3rd in the NFC North, looking way up at Chicago and Minnesota.


Prediction

Look for the Packers to benefit from an even better season from Aaron Rodgers in 2009. The offense's production should be impressive with Rodgers going into his second season as a starter. However, the defense will need another offseason or two to find the right personnel for the 3-4. With 7 or 8 wins, the Packers will be a 3rd place team, but considered a fringe Wild Card team until the final few weeks of the season.


Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft

1.Left Tackle – While Green Bay's defense is a much bigger concern than their offense, their biggest glarig hole is at left tackle. Chad Clifton's career is at its tail end and the Packers must a find a replacement for him and fast.

2.3-4 Inside Linebacker – Nick Barnett is coming off of an ACL injury and AJ Hawk has been a bit of a bust thus far, possibly partly due to lingering injuries. Unfortunately for the Packers, the linebacking corps is the key to Green Bay's success following their switch to the 3-4 defense.

3.3-4 Defensive End – It is still undecided as to whether the Packers will use Ryan Pickett at nose tackle to back up rookie draftee B.J. Raji or move him to left end. If he backs up Raji, Johnny Jolly will likely play the position. Pickett is a better fit at nose tackle and neither Pickett nor Jolly looks to be the answer as a 3-4 defensive end. If Ted Thompson and Dom Capers don't want newly-moved-to-outside linebacker Aaron Kampman to be overworked, they'll need to find a pure 3-4 end to solidify their defensive line.


4th: Detroit Lions


The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009

1-15. Kidding, kidding. If Daunte Culpepper can regain his 2004 form or Matthew Stafford can seize the starting job and have a Matt Ryan/Joe Flacco-esque impact, developing a chemistry with freak athlete Calvin Johnson, watch out! This team actually has a lot of youth that could progress quickly. I may be on my way to Palm Springs for saying this, but the Lions could come close to being a Wild Card team in 2009.


The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009

On the plus side, the Lions have nowhere to go but up. The biggest key for them is the quarterback position. If Culpepper plays like he has for the last 4 years and Stafford looks like a rookie, the Lions will still probably win more games than they did last year...but not many.


Prediction

I think Detroit is going to be a sneaky team this year and provide some exciting flashes of a promising future. Daunte Cullpepper will exceed expectations and, after an eventual injury, Matthew Stafford will step in and play well (not Matt Ryan-ish, but well). I think they'll win at least 4 or 5 games and would not be shocked if they won 6 or 7.


Top 3 Needs Likely to be Addressed Early in the 2010 NFL Draft

1.Defensive Under Tackle – Grady Jackson will man the nose tackle position, but Detroit needs a replacement for Chuck Darby who had 1.5 sacks in 15 games last season. Someone to help clog the middle on Detroit's defensive line would pay dividends in both pass and run defense.

2.Left Tackle – The Lions need to protect their new investment's (when Stafford plays, that is) blind side and, barring an incredible year from Jeff Backus, he seems a suspect choice to do so. Detroit would do well to draft a blue chip left tackle in the mold of Oklahoma State's Russell Okung and move Backus to left guard.

3.Running Back – The strength of this position depends greatly on the scheme the Lions settle on in 2009. New Head Coach Jim Schwartz prefers a more power-oriented, road grading scheme while new Offensive Coordinator Scott Linehan prefers a zone blocking scheme. Running back Kevin Smith is a great fit for the latter, but a poor fit for the former. If Schwartz's preferred offense is employed, drafting a new rusher will be mandatory. If Linehan's zone blocking scheme is used, another running back would still be a nice addition as the NFL moves toward the employment of more rushing tandems as opposed to lone workhorses.


Up Next - Episode III: NFC South