1st: Pittsburgh Steelers
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
A repeat. There's nothing to suggest that the Steelers should take any steps back in 2009. While their offensive line still has some issues and a healthy Tom Brady could make the Patriots again the class of the NFL, the defending champions are frighteningly talented on both sides of the ball and have as good of an opportunity to repeat as Super Bowl champions as anyone in a long time. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if Pittsburgh won 13 or 14 games this season and took home a franchise record 7th Vince Lombardi Trophy.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
If the offensive line struggles again in 2009 and Ben Roethlisberger finds himself on the turf time and time again, the Steelers could be in for a very disappointing season. Also, if the loss of cornerback Bryant McFadden leaves a hole in the secondary, the defense could see a dramatic drop in their defensive production. Even if Roethlisberger gets hurt and the Steelers have a hole in the secondary, this is still a solid team. Regardless of what happens, I just can't see this team winning fewer than 9 or 10 games in 2009.
Prediction
The Steelers are primed for another deep playoff run. They are returning almost their entire roster from last February's Super Bowl and should be on any short list of 2009 Super Bowl favorites. Ben Roethlisberger has never been a fantasy football phenom, but he's turning in to an elite NFL quarterback. On defense, Dick LeBeau scheme continues to befuddle and shut down opposing offenses. I think the Steelers will yet again find themselves in the AFC Championship game this season. Most likely, they'll be playing New England. If that happens, it could be a game for the ages.
2nd: Baltimore Ravens
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
The Ravens are a very talented team and present a very real threat to the annual divisional champion - the Pittsburgh Steelers. There's no reason to doubt that Baltimore has the ability to unseat the World Champions. They went 0-3 last season against the Steelers, but all 3 games were very close. With Joe Flacco continuing to improve and a dominant defense still mainly intact, I see Baltimore's ceiling being 11 or 12 wins this season and another AFC Championship berth. After that, even if the Ravens wrestle the division crown away from the Steelers, I'm just not sure that this team is good enough to beat New England or San Diego.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Bart Scott's departure from Baltimore could be difficult to overcome. Ray Lewis may be the leader of the Raven's defense, but Scott's presence and impact cannot be ignored. If his absence causes ripples throughout the Baltimore defense and Joe Flacco becomes a victim of the dreaded Sophomore slump, the Ravens could very well win no more than 8 or 9 games and miss the playoffs in 2009.
Prediction
I like Baltimore to make the playoffs this season, but not win their division. Pittsburgh will, yet again, prove to be too much for the Ravens. I think 9 or 10 wins sounds about right. I also don't think they'll make it past the Divisional Round in this year's playoffs.
3rd: Cincinnati Bengals
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
If Carson Palmer stays healthy and returns to his form of a few years ago, the Bengals' offense could see big improvement. T.J. Houshmandzadeh is a big loss, but Laverneus Coles should help fill the void left by Housh. On defense, Cincinnati is young, but has a lot of talent. I could see the Bengals surprising some people this year and winning 7 or 8 games and remaining a playoff bubble team until mid December. Any more than that, however, seems like too much to ask for.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
In short, the last two seasons. If Palmer can't stay healthy and the young Cincinnati defense fails to turn a corner (so to speak), the Bengals could be in for yet another long, miserable season. In this scenario, the jail cats could win only 3 or 4 games and hold a top 5 draft pick in April - again.
Prediction
I think the Bengals will, in fact, surprise some people this year and win an impressive (for Cincinnati, of course) 7 or 8 games. They'll be a potential playoff team until late November or early December. This will all be attributed to Carson Palmer finding his groove again, staying healthy and rediscover that which made him an elite quarterback not too long ago. I also like a lot of the youth Cincinnati has on defense. If Palmer and the Bengal offense can get some quick leads on teams, the defense could benefit from desperate offensive play on the part of opponents. Ultimately, this team will shock some fans, including pundits, but find themselves at home again when playoff time rolls around.
4th: Cleveland Browns
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Unfortunately, not much. Even if Brady Quinn begins to look like a first round draft choice or Derek Anderson recovers his 2007 form and Braylon Edwards remembers how to catch a football, Cleveland's defense is going to allow too many points for the Browns to stay in games. Overall, I can't see Cleveland winning more than 5 or 6 games in 2009. The playoffs are well out of reach.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009j
Pretty bad. If Quinn or Anderson doesn't look like a franchise quarterback this season and Edwards doesn't step up and be the receiver he's supposed to be, a 2 or 3 win season is very possible. The defense will give up points and a struggling Quinn or Anderson will serve up mistake after mistake. In this scenario, wins would be very difficult to come by. A top 1 or 2 draft pick could result in the selection of Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford if Quinn or Anderson doesn't impress.
Prediction
Unfortunately for Cleveland, I think they'll lie somewhere between the previously mentioned scenarios. Win total? Probably 3 or 4 games. On the plus side, a top 5 draft choice will help Mangini begin yet another rebuilding phase in Browns-land.
Up Next - Episode VII: AFC South
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