1st: Indianapolis Colts
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Tony Dungy may be gone, but I think we'll see a seamless transition into the Jim Caldwell era. Mr. Peyton Manning, the Colts' field general, is still on the team and gives the offense all the field leadership they need. On defense, there are questions surrounding Bob Sanders' health and, when Sanders isn't healthy, neither are the Colts' Super Bowl prospects. However, I look for Manning to give the Colts a lot of early leads this season, allowing Dwight Freeney and the defense to pin their ears back and come after opposing quarterbacks. Nonetheless, while a Super Bowl is not out of the question, I just don't see a Super Bowl appearance. The most Indy can expect is about 11 or 12 wins and an AFC Championship defeat (either to Pittsburgh, San Diego or New England).
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
I may not like the Colts' Super Bowl chances, but I don't think they have a very low floor either. Their offense is intact (Marvin Harrison is gone, but he hadn't been himself for a season or two, anyway) and the defense is, at worst, average (with Bob Sanders healthy, of course). I don't see Indianapolis winning fewer than 9 or 10 games and not making the playoffs.
Prediction
The Colts should win 10 or 11 games, capture the AFC South crown, and find themselves still playing football in early January. I see the Colts being put out to pasture sometime during divisional weekend.
2nd: Tennessee Titans
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
2008. Other than the loss of Albert Haynesworth, the Titans look virtually identical to last season's squad that earned the NFL's best regular season record last season. But for some reason, I have a feeling that Tennessee will come falling back to Earth in 2009. Regardless, there's no reason the Titans shouldn't believe they have the talent to win a championship; they do. This team has a realistic chance to win 12 or 13 games and a Vince Lombardi Trophy.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
As I stated before, I see the 2009 Titans being much less impressive than 2008 Titans. As the old adage goes, it all starts up front, and the loss of Haynesworth could be a costly one. Additionally, quarterback Kerry Collins is a year older and Vince Young seems a frighteningly unstable backup. Plus, Tennessee could be playing in a surprisingly difficult division with an always-good Indianapolis team, an improving Houston squad and a better-than-their-record Jacksonville bunch with which to contend. Should things go the wrong way in 2009, I wouldn't be surprised if Tennessee only wins 8 or 9 games and miss the playoffs this season.
Prediction
First, I still think the Titans are a playoff team. Their defense good enough to keep them in games even when their offense isn't moving the ball and putting points on the board. Second, however, I don't think that last season was indicative of future results. Tennessee will win 9 or 10 games, earn a Wild Card spot and lose in the Wild Card or Divisional Round.
3rd: Houston Texans
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
If Matt Schaub can stay healthy and Mario Williams can continue to befuddle offensive tackles with his combination of size and quickness, the Texans could do a lot of damage in 2009. Houston has been a team on the rise, and has been for awhile it seems, and I think this could be the year they catapult themselves into playoff contention. I think winning 9 or 10 games and earning a 2nd place finish and a Wild Card spot is well within the realm of possibility for this year's Texans. I don't think they're ready to win the division, but I do think they're getting closer.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Over the last couple seasons, Houston has been considered a moderate underachiever. Expectations in Houston rise significantly each offseason and, by late October or early November, the Texans are an afterthought in playoff-related conversations. This season could be no different, especially if Matt Schaub continues to struggle to stay healthy. Another 5 or 6-win season and top 10 draft pick isn't out of the question.
Prediction
I don't see the Texans fulfilling expectations in 2009, but I do see them being dramatically improved. They'll still be a bubble playoff team in mid December, finishing the 2009 season with 8 or 9 wins. Ultimately they won't be a playoff team, but they'll flirt more seriously with playoff contention than they ever have in their short existence.
4th: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
The Jaguars are up one year and down the next. Should this annual undulation continue, 2009 should be a good season. If David Garrard can bounce back after a disappointing 2008 and the defense can stiffen and return to the form from previous years, Jacksonville could improve. Playing in a fairly difficult AFC South, however, I don't see a great improvement. A maximum of 7 or 8 wins is plausible, which would most likely result in missing the playoffs by a game or two.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Similar to the best Tennessee can reasonably expect in 2009, a repeat of 2008. Jacksonville followed an impressive 2007 season with an extremely disappointing 2008 season. If the Jaguars aren't able to rediscover their identity, a stingy defense and a strong, physical running game, they'll again find themselves in the cellar of the division and Jack Del Rio will likely find his way out of town. A big key this season will be whether or not Maurice Jones-Drew can handle the load as the Jaguars' lone rusher with Fred Taylor in New England. If he struggles with his new, larger role in the offense and Jacksonville can't resurrect their defense, the Jaguars could be in for a very long season. I don't consider only 3 or 4 wins and a top 5 draft pick out of the picture.
Prediction
I don't like Jacksvonville's chances of finding some level of upward mobility in the AFC South this season. Simply put, they're the worst team in the division and I fully expect their record to demonstrate that. The odds are slim that the Jaguars will win more than 5 or 6 games this season. At least they should have another top 10 draft pick next April.
Up Next - Episode VIII: AFC West
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