I know, I know. This is cheating. Week 1 is already in the books and there should be federal laws prohibiting fans from offering up friendly season predictions so late in the season. However, I promise I will not take opening weekend's results into account in the following paragraphs. After all, I've pretty much prepared what I'm going to write. I just haven't written it yet. So, here it goes:
1st: San Diego Chargers
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Super Bowl. This team is supremely talented. They've just never quite put it together. If LaDainian Tomlinson can bounce back for a healthy season, San Diego's chances increase exponentially. Also, Phillip Rivers' development will continue to be key in the Chargers' success. He is an emerging star and, while being the only top pick at quarterback taken in the 2004 NFL Draft without a Super Bowl ring, may be the best of the trio (Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger). On defense, Shawne Merriman's health will play a huge role. If he's healthy and can get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, there will not be nearly as much pressure on an inconsistent secondary to keep receivers covered for long periods of time. Ultimately, the Chargers should set their sights very high. They have an excellent squad, a lot of talent and experience playing with one another. In the AFC West, I don't think 12 or 13 wins is out of the question.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
A division title. Even if the Chargers stumble, I can't see any other team winning the AFC West. I think they'll go 6-0 or 5-1 in the division, making their floor around 8 or 9 wins. Even with an ineffective Merriman and a rapidly declining Tomlinson, San Diego should win the West and find themselves in the Divisional Playoff round in 2009.
Prediction
Even with their fortunate divisional placement and abundance of talent, I don't think the San Diego Chargers are Super Bowl bound. With questions surrounding Tomlinson and Merriman, the Chargers' championship window seems to be closing quickly - even with one of the league's young, emerging stars at quarterback in Rivers. Ultimately, San Diego will win 10 or 11 games and depart the NFL playoffs in the divisional round.
2nd: Kansas City Chiefs
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
A lot of changes in Kansas City over the offseason could lead to surprising results in 2009. With new G.M. Scott Pioli and new head coach Todd Haley and new franchise quarterback Matt Cassel, the Chiefs are reborn anew. Whether or not the dramatic changes in Kansas City translate to wins in the short-term remains to be seen, but the Chiefs have some good young talent on both offense and defense. I don't think the Chiefs can be a playoff team in 2009, but I think they can have a positive year. In my estimation, their ceiling is 2nd place in the AFC West and 7 or 8 wins.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
The Chiefs could very easily win only 3 or 4 games and earn a top 5 draft pick. Excitement or not, they're still a rebuilding team in flux. As far as their new, shiny franchise quarterback, both injury concerns and experience concerns surround him. Also surrounding him is a young, nondescript supporting cast. As a result, the Chiefs' floor is so low, it may very well be in the basement.
Prediction
With between 5 and 7 wins, Kansas City will take advantage of playing in the worst overall division in football. Their 2009 season will serve as a positive step toward more successful future season. Their playoff chances in 2009 are virtually nil, but I like where this team is going and I expect them to be a bubble playoff team by 2010 or 2011.
3rd: Oakland Raiders
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
There is no question that the Oakland Raider franchise looks like a complete and utter mess. Head coaches assaulting coordinators and trading 1st round picks for aging and declining football players going into contract years (especially for a team whose future prospects are better than their present prospects) is not the way to inspire optimism in your fan base. With all that said, however, the Raiders do have some undeniable talent on both sides of the ball. Their ceiling is probably 6 or 7 wins based on talent alone, but a lot of things will have to go well for them to near their ceiling.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Awful. I wouldn't be surprised if Oakland owned a top 3 draft pick in next year's draft after winning only 2 or 3 games in 2009. If the Raiders continue their "Commitment to Excrement", Oakland will be out of playoff contention by the middle of October.
Prediction
For years, this franchise has been in shambles in terms of managerial decisions, chemistry and on-field production. Especially with the way their offseason unfolded, I see no reason to believe things will change in the East Bay in 2009. On the plus side, Oakland should earn for Al Davis the opportunity to make another questionable decision at the top of the first round of the draft - this time likely in the top 5.
4th: Denver Broncos
The Best They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
Things aren't looking so good in Denver after the departure of Jay Cutler and the temper tantrums thrown by Brandon Marshall. However, new head coach Josh McDaniels was groomed under Bill Belichek and likely knows how to build a winning franchise. Plus, he still has good talent on both offense and defense in Denver and a new quarterback in Kyle Orton who looked very good in 2008 before he went down to injury. Nevertheless, the Broncos franchise has the words 'starting over' written all over its insignia and I will be shocked if it wins more than 5 games in 2009. I put the Broncos' ceiling around 4 or 5 games.
The Worst They Can Reasonably Expect in 2009
If Denver's regular season resembles, in any way, their offseason, the Broncos could find themselves winning only 2 or 3 games in 2009 (they've already won 1, proving that I'm not taking Week 1's results into consideration one iota). If Kyle Orton doesn't look vastly better than he did in the preseason and McDaniels' young defense doesn't emerge quickly as a solid defense, I see no reason why the Denver Broncos won't be 3rd or 4th place in the worst division in the NFL. On the plus side, Josh McDaniels should have a shot at a franchise quarterback early in the 2010 NFL Draft - assuming, of course, he doesn't think Kyle Orton is the long-term answer at the position for the Broncos. For his sake, I hope he doesn't.
Prediction
Unfortunately for the Mile High City, I see a 2009 season more similar to their floor than their ceiling. Josh McDaniels and his new squad will have a bumpy year and a lot of questions to answer next offseason. I think they'll earn 3 or 4 wins and be virtually out of playoff contention by late October. On the plus side, there is some good, youthful talent in Denver for McDaniels and the Broncos to build around for the future.
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